Analogues Point to a Cold January Likely with Coldest Air of the Season Thus Far Due Early Next Week With Some Moderation Late
After the cold below normal November; December followed November's cue unfolding as expected with mainly colder than average weather and larger departures below normal. All of Southeast Lower Michigan experienced below normal temperatures on average in December. Even with over a third of the month's days /13/ having above normal temperatures; it was the below normal temperature departure days that sunk December's average temperature and subsequent departures. In the end; December averaged 2 1/2 - 4 1/2 degrees below normal across Southeast Lower Michigan with Detroit @ 26.8/-3.3; Flint @ 25.0/-2.5 and Saginaw @ 22.8/-4.5. Snowfall got off to a good start for the first real month of winter with Detroit @ 15.5"/ +5.8"; Flint @ 16.9"/+ 5.1 and Saginaw 18.9"/+ 9.9".
An update on the projected storm and frigid air to follow will be sent this weekend then up next; looking at the best performing analogues thus far and January's projections.
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian