Update 11/16; Powerful Storm to Bring Damaging Winds and Likelihood of Severe Weather Into The Great Lakes Sunday

Update 11/18
Severe Weather Report from the NWS DTX for 11/17-18


Update 11/16

All guidance continues to show a powerful storm to impact the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. Look for the biggest impacts to be by way of strong winds and the more likelihood of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. A deepening and intensifying low pressure system will cross the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes by Sunday evening. The deep low will pivot a strong cold front through Southeast Lower Michigan by evening with an increasing risk of severe weather out ahead of the system Sunday mid afternoon into early evening.  The dynamics of the system are powerful and easily could produce severe weather. The possible negating factor is how much instability will be available for the storms. That being said; the powerful upper air dynamics will not need much to make the most of what  instability is available. So much so; there is even the risk of tornadoes with strong cold front later Sunday into Sunday evening due to the strong veering winds with height; therefore spin-ups in the atmosphere are a distinct risk! While time of year is also a negating factor; all one has to do is think back to November 2002 to see what severe weather is attainable under prime conditions! While that severe weather and rash of tornadoes occurred across Ohio and Indiana and points south; it does show what is possible at this time of year!. Stay tuned to the NWS for possible Severe Weather Watches and Warnings on Sunday.

Sharply colder air will sweep behind the strong cold front Sunday Night into Monday. Look for temperatures to rise into the 60s ahead of the front Sunday and plummet down to the 30s by Monday morning; only to recover or hold steady in the upper 30 to lower 40s Monday afternoon.

Severe Weather Outlook from The Storm Prediction Center


Day One

11/14
Recent model projections are bringing together a strong low pressure system into the northern Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday. Variances on just how strong she'll be still have to be worked out but at this time projections are for a Kansas Low to intensify quickly later Sunday as she tracks quickly northeast into the northern Great Lakes by early Monday. Some modeling has the storm deepening down into the 975 MB range by the time she matures over the northern Great Lakes. While this looks to be a bit strong, pressures dropping to around  980 MB are quite possible by Monday.

This storm has the potential to bring strong winds, heavy rains and wrap around snow in the colder air behind the system. The storm will intensify as she draws very cold air from southern Canada into the Great Lakes. The cold air will sweep Southeast Lower Michigan in the form of a powerful cold front by later Sunday afternoon and evening bringing heavy rain and possible even a few thunderstorms. Much colder air will blast the region Sunday night into Monday with temperatures dropping through the 30s Sunday night and into the 20s by Monday morning. Look for a further update as things become clearer on this storm into the weekend.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian