Strong Ridge to Herald in the Summer???

Extended models have been suggesting that the pesky predominant upper low pattern that has plagued the region for months may finally hit the road (well, at least temporarily ;-)). Ironically, this is set to happen around Memorial Day (5/30) which unofficially announces the summer season to many (and this year, it is also within 48 hours of the start of the climate summer season which of course runs from June 1st - August 31st. We turn the page of the calendar to June on Wed,  6/1/11 and start summer, season-wise. Just to add to the confusion, the first day of summer /summer solstice/ occurs on June 21st, at 116 PM EDT.

The GFS model /US/ has been more persistent with this trend change than the Euro model which has been more indecisive. However, as of Tue 5/24, both models strongly intimate this trend change. Note the 200 MB on the GFS and 500 MB on the Euro for Memorial Day on the maps below. The upper wind pattern shows this very notable change as a rather impressive ridge develops on the doorstep of summer! This would bring very warm summer conditions to the region but at the same time, should deflect the stormy pattern that has held mainly south, northward into our neck of the woods (especially if the upper low in Canada hangs tough).

Take a look>>>>

The cool, stormy pattern over Southeast Michigan has been a tough bird to dislodge this spring, so I have my reservations, but for now I'll watch this with anticipation. We certainly are due for a change and many times spring around here can just be a fleeting memory. 

Is this projected pattern change reflective of a more permanent change for the summer or just transitory? I'll look at that after the Memorial Day weekend during the first week of June. Beach anyone???

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