The extended models did well with the ridge building into the Great Lakes by Memorial Day. The warmer weather certainly took it's time getting here and not without Sun's severe weather fanfare. The ridge (and warmer weather) should dominate much of the week with storms possible with a weak front Tue night and another weak front on Thu night or early Fri.
Preliminary indications for the first weekend of June is decent with no real cool spells. Enjoy the summer weather (now if we could just get the lakes
Great and otherwise, to warm up).
5/30/11
5/24/11
Strong Ridge to Herald in the Summer???
Extended models have been suggesting that the pesky predominant upper low pattern that has plagued the region for months may finally hit the road (well, at least temporarily ;-)). Ironically, this is set to happen around Memorial Day (5/30) which unofficially announces the summer season to many (and this year, it is also within 48 hours of the start of the climate summer season which of course runs from June 1st - August 31st. We turn the page of the calendar to June on Wed, 6/1/11 and start summer, season-wise. Just to add to the confusion, the first day of summer /summer solstice/ occurs on June 21st, at 116 PM EDT.
The GFS model /US/ has been more persistent with this trend change than the Euro model which has been more indecisive. However, as of Tue 5/24, both models strongly intimate this trend change. Note the 200 MB on the GFS and 500 MB on the Euro for Memorial Day on the maps below. The upper wind pattern shows this very notable change as a rather impressive ridge develops on the doorstep of summer! This would bring very warm summer conditions to the region but at the same time, should deflect the stormy pattern that has held mainly south, northward into our neck of the woods (especially if the upper low in Canada hangs tough).
Take a look>>>>
The cool, stormy pattern over Southeast Michigan has been a tough bird to dislodge this spring, so I have my reservations, but for now I'll watch this with anticipation. We certainly are due for a change and many times spring around here can just be a fleeting memory.
Is this projected pattern change reflective of a more permanent change for the summer or just transitory? I'll look at that after the Memorial Day weekend during the first week of June. Beach anyone???
The GFS model /US/ has been more persistent with this trend change than the Euro model which has been more indecisive. However, as of Tue 5/24, both models strongly intimate this trend change. Note the 200 MB on the GFS and 500 MB on the Euro for Memorial Day on the maps below. The upper wind pattern shows this very notable change as a rather impressive ridge develops on the doorstep of summer! This would bring very warm summer conditions to the region but at the same time, should deflect the stormy pattern that has held mainly south, northward into our neck of the woods (especially if the upper low in Canada hangs tough).
Take a look>>>>
The cool, stormy pattern over Southeast Michigan has been a tough bird to dislodge this spring, so I have my reservations, but for now I'll watch this with anticipation. We certainly are due for a change and many times spring around here can just be a fleeting memory.
Is this projected pattern change reflective of a more permanent change for the summer or just transitory? I'll look at that after the Memorial Day weekend during the first week of June. Beach anyone???
5/23/11
Stormy Weather clobbering the US this Spring
The Flint Beecher tornado (when over 100 people were killed) HAD BEEN the last time 100 people were killed in a single tornado until Joplin /around 116/).
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
5/17/11
Cool & Wet Spring pegged well by Spring 2011 Analogues
After a long, cold and snowy winter the last thing people wanted to hear for the spring outlook was cool and wet. That was exactly the dominant trend portrayed by my spring analogues. It was one of cool conditions relative to normal along with a preference toward normal to above normal rainfalls (depending on location). The best chance for unseasonably cool weather was seen early and again late in the season. Refer to the temperature and precipitation forecasts below from the Outlook.
Spring Outlook 2011:
Temperatures:
The analogues this go-around are strongly suggesting a cooler than normal spring (see the details in Analogues section). The best chance of below normal temperatures generally speaking, are in March and May. Spring has a good chance of being cooler than normal early and again late in the season is the best way to look at it. However, I feel the magnitude of the cold in the analogues is too strong and warm spells will offset the cooler weather that is anticipated.
Why I looked for a dominantly cool spring (cool side of average), I still felt the overall Southeast Lower Michigan temperature departures would not be a cool as many of the analogues. Reasons being were that the occasional warm spells expected would offset the dominant cool weather somewhat and thus, the mean spring temperature across Southeast Michigan would average as low as 1 1/2 degrees below the spring average. So far /thru mid May/ across Southeast Lower Michigan, temperatures have actually just averaged only about a degree below (helped in part by just a few strong warm spells seen this spring). The second half of May will help determine where indeed the spring ends up.
Precipitation:
It's also been a wet spring with precipitation l around the metro Detroit area closing in on eleven inches as of mid May, nearly four inches about average. Flint has seen about an inch better (or worse, depending you perspective) with around a foot of precipitation measured and five plus inches above average. Both Detroit and Flint rainfall totals are already in the top 20 wettest springs categories. This "wet" area across Southeast Michigan was also projected in my Outlook:
"the best chance of above normal precipitation is where the trend has been since last summer, from the I-69 corridor south to the Ohio border. "
**********************************************************************************
Several people have suggested I write a blog after leaving the National Weather Service and continue my personal perspective on Southeast Michigan's weather along with thoughts and predictions on the upcoming seasons. If there indeed proves to be enough interest, I shall expand on this and therefore the site is under development.
Up next...
Springs actual stats against interpretation.
Later...
Thoughts/Outlook on Summer
Spring Outlook 2011:
Temperatures:
The analogues this go-around are strongly suggesting a cooler than normal spring (see the details in Analogues section). The best chance of below normal temperatures generally speaking, are in March and May. Spring has a good chance of being cooler than normal early and again late in the season is the best way to look at it. However, I feel the magnitude of the cold in the analogues is too strong and warm spells will offset the cooler weather that is anticipated.
Why I looked for a dominantly cool spring (cool side of average), I still felt the overall Southeast Lower Michigan temperature departures would not be a cool as many of the analogues. Reasons being were that the occasional warm spells expected would offset the dominant cool weather somewhat and thus, the mean spring temperature across Southeast Michigan would average as low as 1 1/2 degrees below the spring average. So far /thru mid May/ across Southeast Lower Michigan, temperatures have actually just averaged only about a degree below (helped in part by just a few strong warm spells seen this spring). The second half of May will help determine where indeed the spring ends up.
Precipitation:
It's also been a wet spring with precipitation l around the metro Detroit area closing in on eleven inches as of mid May, nearly four inches about average. Flint has seen about an inch better (or worse, depending you perspective) with around a foot of precipitation measured and five plus inches above average. Both Detroit and Flint rainfall totals are already in the top 20 wettest springs categories. This "wet" area across Southeast Michigan was also projected in my Outlook:
"the best chance of above normal precipitation is where the trend has been since last summer, from the I-69 corridor south to the Ohio border. "
**********************************************************************************
Several people have suggested I write a blog after leaving the National Weather Service and continue my personal perspective on Southeast Michigan's weather along with thoughts and predictions on the upcoming seasons. If there indeed proves to be enough interest, I shall expand on this and therefore the site is under development.
Up next...
Springs actual stats against interpretation.
Later...
Thoughts/Outlook on Summer
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