A low pressure system with good dynamics and moisture supply will bring a steady rain to much of Southeast Lower Michigan Overnight into Friday morning. As mentioned earlier this week; this low pressure system's makeup is more like that of a winter-type system rather than a first day of meteorological summer /June 1st/.
Looking at the system and track below does remind one of a good snowstorm in the making for Southeast Lower Michigan. While temperatures will be cool they will be no where near winter-like. As mentioned; the storm center and lower pressure are will bring a steady cool rain to the area; mainly totally .50" to locally as high as an inch.
Much of Southeast Lower Michigan has been on the dry side recently with the early growing season upon us; so this rain will be a welcome sight. This notable change to the upper and surface level pattern; resulting in cooler weather (when compared late May's warm pattern) looks like it will stick around for possibly the first week of June.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
WeatherHistorian-SeMI: Celebrating 28 years - Retired NWS Weather Historian after 37 years, Bill Deedler, continues his thoughts and forecasts on evolving weather patterns and Season Outlooks affecting Southeast Lower Michigan.
May 31, 2012
May 28, 2012
An Impressive Cool Shot To End an Impressive Record Warm Spring (Mainly Due to March);
After a record or near record warm spring; a rather breezy and cool fresh air mass for ironically; the season change to meteorological summer, will surge into the region the last few days of May and hold into the first few days of June. This much cooler air mass (with a upper level tag from the polar region) will change the record high air mass in place on Memorial Day to normal; then below normal temperatures to close out the month/season. While starting out the week in the 90s for Memorial Day; cooler weather will infiltrate the region in several waves. The first of these being tonight into Tuesday morning and this most important wave will be accompanied scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Another system is slated develop late in the week on the parameter of this "polar air mass" and shoot thru the Lower Great Lakes. Interesting and also ironic; as winter snow buffs were looking for some sort of semblance to this type of system back in the cold season. This low on the models has been showing many preliminary characteristics of a winter-type low pressure for development and track thru the region late in the week. While temperatures will be cool; no winter type precipitation is expected. I will update about this system as it plays out on guidance, also.
Much of the southern half of Southeast Lower Michigan could use the hopeful rain as it has been rather dry; NOT a good time in the growing season for fellow gardeners and farmers. Check out these precipitation stats for Detroit, Flint and Saginaw for the spring and May thru the 27th:
DETROIT:
MAY TO DATE 1.34 NORM 2.93 -1.59 LAST MAY 5.13
SINCE MAR 1 6.44 NORM 8.11 -1.67 LAST SPRING 14.35
FLINT:
MAY TO DATE 6.87 NORM 2.68 +4.19 LAST MAY 6.90
SINCE MAR 1 10.23 NORM 7.48 +2.75 LAST SPRING 16.29
SAGINAW
PRECIPITATION: MAY.... 3.62 SPRING.... 7.30
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Another system is slated develop late in the week on the parameter of this "polar air mass" and shoot thru the Lower Great Lakes. Interesting and also ironic; as winter snow buffs were looking for some sort of semblance to this type of system back in the cold season. This low on the models has been showing many preliminary characteristics of a winter-type low pressure for development and track thru the region late in the week. While temperatures will be cool; no winter type precipitation is expected. I will update about this system as it plays out on guidance, also.
Much of the southern half of Southeast Lower Michigan could use the hopeful rain as it has been rather dry; NOT a good time in the growing season for fellow gardeners and farmers. Check out these precipitation stats for Detroit, Flint and Saginaw for the spring and May thru the 27th:
DETROIT:
MAY TO DATE 1.34 NORM 2.93 -1.59 LAST MAY 5.13
SINCE MAR 1 6.44 NORM 8.11 -1.67 LAST SPRING 14.35
While it's been dry this spring the BIG news here is the comparison to last spring when it was SO WET. Basically; up to date we've had half the rainfall of last spring /14.35/. Of course, further north around Flint because of the flooding rains earlier in the month on the 3rd and the 4th; it's a different story.
FLINT:
MAY TO DATE 6.87 NORM 2.68 +4.19 LAST MAY 6.90
SINCE MAR 1 10.23 NORM 7.48 +2.75 LAST SPRING 16.29
Ironically; last May and this May are neck in neck for rainfall at Flint but even with the earlier flooding rains this May, it is nowhere close to last spring's total rainfall to date /16.29/!
The Saginaw Valley region was drier but heavy rains trekking southeast across the region Sunday put an end to that; and the area is now on par to be closer to normal for rainfall both May and spring.
SAGINAW
PRECIPITATION: MAY.... 3.62 SPRING.... 7.30
As mentioned; we are still expecting scattered showers and storms overnight into Tuesday morning, then a slight chance Wednesday. So these totals are likely to change.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
May 22, 2012
Frontal Boundary to Lurk in the Southern Great Lakes Memorial Weekend? /Update/
Update 5/24/12:
Really see no need to update previous blog thus far. I was asked (comment section); "What is the most likely time period for showers and thunderstorms on the weekend? I answered this would not be an all the time thing with most likely time period from mid Saturday to mid Sunday. Hopefully; any activity will be of the nocturnal variety and be over Saturday night. The risk of storms pops up again late Memorial Day itself; with a little luck much of that activity will again, hold of till night. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a quick heads-up about the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend: 5/22/12
As of early this week; I'm seeing the likelihood of the front drifting at least as far south as the Southern Lakes Region sometime Saturday before slowing; and then stalling in the Southern Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley Region. We are still early in this warm season and thus; the Great Lakes are not the warmest. Generally with the relatively cool Lake waters late in the spring; they aid in the progression south with these type of somewhat shallow cold fronts. This is; in spite of the building upper level heights and subsequent high pressure ridge development aloft. In this early time frame; current thinking is the best chance for showers and thunderstorms would be Saturday into early Sunday. The timing and location will be highly dependent on positioning of the front and possible storm development on decaying storm outflow boundaries. Also; later on Memorial Day itself there may be a risk of storms as a cold front approaches but this too far out to even speculate at this time.
So in one sentence: This front is looking more like it will goof-up part of the Memorial Day weekend over Michigan before retreating back north.
As we get closer to Memorial Day weekend; I will update the most likely scenario.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
May 14, 2012
What a Rude Awakening; The Derecho of May 31st 1998!
I remember it like it was just a few years ago; the Derecho of May 31st,1998. I'm sure all on shift will also remember that morning as many of my co-workers and the MI-CON DTX team, stayed overnight from the evening shift Saturday due to the violent weather that was taking shape upstream and expected locally. Ironically; my new and admired boss, Mr. Richard Calcaterra arrived on the scene from what I remember was his first day after relocating from Tennessee. He came in early that Sunday morning to assistance me and then later; to relieve this fatigued weatherman who had been on duty since at least 4 PM Saturday.
Meteorologists, severe weather weenies and all others; take a look at this radar loop! This derecho plowed through Lower Michigan with a forward speed at around 70 miles an hour; tearing up the countryside as she trekked mainly east across Southeast Lower Michigan. Just as captivating, is this longer term radar loop from the Storm Prediction Center /SPC/. Watch as the derecho surges from the Dakotas, through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. And, just as intriguing; note as the cooler intense outflows from the primary line as they plow into the warm and very unstable air mass; giving birth to new lines of severe storms as they join in the "attack"!
It was just after dawn, when that previously eerie tranquil silence of the Sunday morning was shattered by this ferocious evil side of mother nature! I prepared the weather balloon ahead of the squall, just after 6 AM EDT and released after 7 AM. Meanwhile; winds were gusting up to 100 mph out west along Lake Michigan at Muskegon and Holland; and then shortly after at Grand Rapids. Across Southeast Lower Michigan; wind gusts /mph/ that were clocked in the 60s, 70s and some 80s were all too common as this intense severe weather squall flattened or damaged a widespread hunk of Lower Michigan!
There were two deaths attributed to the storms; resulting from falling trees. One death occurred in Pinconning in Bay County as a tree fell onto a house; while the other death one was in Huron county when a tree fell onto a tent with two occupants in Port Crescent State Park. Ironically (or maybe not), two injuries that occurred in Holly (Oakland County) were also a result of a tree falling onto a tent. The damage across Southeast Lower Michigan was most concentrated from Detroit's northern suburbs north across the Flint, Saginaw Valley, and Thumb regions. An earlier write-up on the Derecho of 5/31/98 originating at DTX can be found here; while another from SPC is located here along with a great tutorial on derechos.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Meteorologists, severe weather weenies and all others; take a look at this radar loop! This derecho plowed through Lower Michigan with a forward speed at around 70 miles an hour; tearing up the countryside as she trekked mainly east across Southeast Lower Michigan. Just as captivating, is this longer term radar loop from the Storm Prediction Center /SPC/. Watch as the derecho surges from the Dakotas, through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. And, just as intriguing; note as the cooler intense outflows from the primary line as they plow into the warm and very unstable air mass; giving birth to new lines of severe storms as they join in the "attack"!
It was just after dawn, when that previously eerie tranquil silence of the Sunday morning was shattered by this ferocious evil side of mother nature! I prepared the weather balloon ahead of the squall, just after 6 AM EDT and released after 7 AM. Meanwhile; winds were gusting up to 100 mph out west along Lake Michigan at Muskegon and Holland; and then shortly after at Grand Rapids. Across Southeast Lower Michigan; wind gusts /mph/ that were clocked in the 60s, 70s and some 80s were all too common as this intense severe weather squall flattened or damaged a widespread hunk of Lower Michigan!
There were two deaths attributed to the storms; resulting from falling trees. One death occurred in Pinconning in Bay County as a tree fell onto a house; while the other death one was in Huron county when a tree fell onto a tent with two occupants in Port Crescent State Park. Ironically (or maybe not), two injuries that occurred in Holly (Oakland County) were also a result of a tree falling onto a tent. The damage across Southeast Lower Michigan was most concentrated from Detroit's northern suburbs north across the Flint, Saginaw Valley, and Thumb regions. An earlier write-up on the Derecho of 5/31/98 originating at DTX can be found here; while another from SPC is located here along with a great tutorial on derechos.
Look for my Summer 2012 Outlook due out the last week of May.
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
May 3, 2012
Late Frost/Freezes Across Michigan Have Ruined More Fruit Tree Crops That Initially Thought
It was bad enough when we had the late March hard freeze but to get more frosts and freezes over portions of the state in mid-late April was just too much for many fruit tree crops this year.
Note: video explains a lot.
Note: video explains a lot.
Apr 30, 2012
April Colder Than March...A Very Rare Bird Indeed!
I could find only one year when looking back into monthly records at Detroit (back to 1870) where March was warmer than April and that was over a century ago, back in 1907! While the official data sample is shorter at Flint, unofficially March of 1907 was warmer than April there too. At Saginaw however; it has never happened, looking back to 1900 at the monthly means! Oh, it did come close with March 1907 just 0.7 of a degree lower than April 1907 but still; no cigar.
What is even more outstanding this time; it is by a much larger margin than in 1907 at Detroit! Looking back at 1907, the temperature difference was just a tiny 0.1 degree; so pretty much duplicate temperature months and "non-detectable". However; this past March's and April's temperature difference is more to crow about! When looking at the temperature chart for the two years; Detroit's average temperature difference between March and April amounts to 1.3 degrees as opposed to the miniscule .1 of a degree in 1907. Over at Flint; the difference between March's 2012 average temperature and April's comes in comfortably over two degrees with a difference of 2.2! In Saginaw, the difference between March's and April's temperatures amounts to 1.1 degrees. And lastly; across all of Southeast Lower Michigan between March and April 2012 average temperatures, the difference amounts to 1.5 degrees with March averaging 49.4 as opposed to April's 47.9.
Another notable standout in Southeast Lower Michigan between the two time periods -1907 and 2012 - are the temperatures themselves! Even though March of 1907 was indeed warmer (and above average) across Southeast Lower Michigan it was rather weakly (when compared to this year) with just 37.9 degrees. The average temperature this March was close to an incredible 50 degrees with 49.4! Looking ahead into April; April of 1907 was down right cold with a stinkin' average temperature of just 37.7 degrees or nearly ten degrees below the normal of 47.1 across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. With the average temperature of just 39.1 at Detroit, April of 1907 was the second coldest April on record. It was the coldest April on record at Saginaw with the average temperature of 37.8 and unofficially at Flint; April 1907 was also the coldest with a pitiful average temperature of just 36.3! Even though this April was cooler than March; you had much more room to work with; with that near 50 degree average of March! April's average temperature across the region is 47.9 just a smidgin above normal; but still ABOVE normal compared to the well below normal of April of 1907.
STATION March
1907 April 1907 March 2012 April 2012
DETROIT
|
39.2
|
39.1
|
50.7
|
49.4
|
FLINT
|
37.5
|
36.3
|
49.5
|
47.3
|
SAGINAW
|
37.0
|
37.8
|
48.0
|
46.9
|
SE MICH
|
37.9
|
37.7
|
49.4
|
47.9
|
The normal or average temperature for April at Detroit
is 49.2; while Flint and Saginaw
average temperatures are duplicates with 46.1 degrees.
What is even more outstanding this time; it is by a much larger margin than in 1907 at Detroit! Looking back at 1907, the temperature difference was just a tiny 0.1 degree; so pretty much duplicate temperature months and "non-detectable". However; this past March's and April's temperature difference is more to crow about! When looking at the temperature chart for the two years; Detroit's average temperature difference between March and April amounts to 1.3 degrees as opposed to the miniscule .1 of a degree in 1907. Over at Flint; the difference between March's 2012 average temperature and April's comes in comfortably over two degrees with a difference of 2.2! In Saginaw, the difference between March's and April's temperatures amounts to 1.1 degrees. And lastly; across all of Southeast Lower Michigan between March and April 2012 average temperatures, the difference amounts to 1.5 degrees with March averaging 49.4 as opposed to April's 47.9.
Another notable standout in Southeast Lower Michigan between the two time periods -1907 and 2012 - are the temperatures themselves! Even though March of 1907 was indeed warmer (and above average) across Southeast Lower Michigan it was rather weakly (when compared to this year) with just 37.9 degrees. The average temperature this March was close to an incredible 50 degrees with 49.4! Looking ahead into April; April of 1907 was down right cold with a stinkin' average temperature of just 37.7 degrees or nearly ten degrees below the normal of 47.1 across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. With the average temperature of just 39.1 at Detroit, April of 1907 was the second coldest April on record. It was the coldest April on record at Saginaw with the average temperature of 37.8 and unofficially at Flint; April 1907 was also the coldest with a pitiful average temperature of just 36.3! Even though this April was cooler than March; you had much more room to work with; with that near 50 degree average of March! April's average temperature across the region is 47.9 just a smidgin above normal; but still ABOVE normal compared to the well below normal of April of 1907.
Apr 25, 2012
Think It's Too Late To Have a Snowstorm in Southeast Lower Michigan; Think Again!
Southeast Lower Michigan Snowstorm of May 9th, 1923
Not since records have been kept in Southeast Lower Michigan (Detroit as far back as 1870), has the snowstorm of May 9th in 1923 been equaled in season lateness and magnitude.
A strong cold front, of Arctic origin, pushed across Southeast Michigan on the afternoon of the 8th, creating scattered thunderstorms. The strength of the front was quite evident in Detroit. The temperature plummeted from a near normal reading of 62 degrees at 100 pm to a winter like one of 34 degrees by 600 pm. Behind the front, the stage was set for some startling weather developments for the month of May...even in Southeast Lower Michigan. Rain mixed with snow fell across the area during the evening of the 8th. Detroit received an estimated inch of snow which melted on the ground before ending by midnight. On the morning of the 9th, a low pressure area developed along the front in northwest Ohio and moved over Lake Erie during the afternoon. The developing low pulled warmer, moist air north from the Ohio Valley and mixed with the unseasonably cold air mass over Southeast Lower Michigan. As a result, a heavy, wet snow began falling during the forenoon hours and continued through the afternoon.
Arguably, one of the most astonishing things (and there were several) about the mid-spring snowstorm was that the bulk of the snow fell during the time of day which is normally considered "the heat of the day" or "afternoon heating" when normal highs of the day are attained. The afternoon temperatures never budged from the lower 30s (31-33) and was accompanied by a stiff northwest wind, averaging 15 to 25 mph. Keep in mind, the normal or average high for May 9th is 67...some 35 degrees warmer! The snow ended by the evening in Detroit and at 800 pm, six inches was reported on the ground. The story was even more fantastic as one traveled west and north of Detroit across Southeast Lower Michigan. Generally, six to nine inches fell west to the Ann Arbor area, northwest through Howell, north across Pontiac and northeast up to Port Huron. Even more incredible, snow depths of around a foot were reported at Flint and Lansing north into the Saginaw Valley. Widespread damage was reported to trees, power lines (many had a two inch circumference of snow hanging on them) and telephone poles, especially in the Saginaw Valley. Even so, economic damage was surprisingly small, especially to spring vegetation. Evidently, the earlier spring weather had been abnormally cold and this led to a late green up. Substantial damage from the cold to vegetation and crops was actually averted due to the insulation affect of the heavy, wet snow.
Many May snow records (amounts and lateness in the season) were shattered and stand firm to this day over Southeast Lower Michigan. By the next morning (10th), much of the snow had melted and by the evening, it was just a memory. The official high in Detroit on the 9th was 39, but that occurred just after midnight, before the storm. The low was 31, which occurred in the afternoon during the storm, giving a mean of 35 for the day and 21 degrees below the normal of 56. Other May record snowfalls in Detroit pale in comparison. In 1912, 1.5 inches fell on May 13th for the second highest amount and the latest snow actually occurred the last day of the month, May 31st, 1910 with a trace. So, the next time you think it's too cold for this late in spring or we can't possibly have a measurable snowfall in late April or May across Southeast Lower Michigan, you might want to THINK about it again (or maybe not).
Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Apr 21, 2012
A Relatively Cool Week On Tap For Late April Over Southeast Lower Michigan
Look for temperatures to average 5 to 10 degrees below normal over Southeast Lower Michigan through much of the week. On average, late April should bring us high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s; while lows fall into the lower to mid 40s.
First up on our weather agenda: a strong low pressure system will rev-up over the East; then pivot somewhat north-northwest toward eastern Great Lakes region - in the vicinity of Lake Ontario - by Tuesday morning.
500 MB JET STREAM - 8AM EDT TUE 4/24
SURFACE MAP - 8AM EDT TUE 4/24
Southeast Lower Michigan will be on the western fringe of this large storm center as it draws down cold polar air into the Eastern Great Lakes. The air should be cold enough for snow over portions of Ontario; southward into western New York and Pennsylvania along with eastern Ohio early in the work week. In our neck of the woods, the main effects from the system will be a brisk and gusty north wind and cool temperatures; along with varying amounts of cloud cover There is the outside chance of some light showers Tuesday as the large storm skirts the region; pushing its way north into eastern Canada. Temperatures into mid week will generally see highs rise into the 50s with lows in the 30s. Wednesday looks to be our warmest day at this time with readings attempting the lower 60s.
While the briefly warmer weather will return to the region by mid week it will be short lived as another re-enforcement of cold air; dives quickly southeast from southern Canada and surges across the Great Lakes later Wednesday into Thursday. Cool, below normal temperatures will continue to prevail into the weekend.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
First up on our weather agenda: a strong low pressure system will rev-up over the East; then pivot somewhat north-northwest toward eastern Great Lakes region - in the vicinity of Lake Ontario - by Tuesday morning.
500 MB JET STREAM - 8AM EDT TUE 4/24
SURFACE MAP - 8AM EDT TUE 4/24
Southeast Lower Michigan will be on the western fringe of this large storm center as it draws down cold polar air into the Eastern Great Lakes. The air should be cold enough for snow over portions of Ontario; southward into western New York and Pennsylvania along with eastern Ohio early in the work week. In our neck of the woods, the main effects from the system will be a brisk and gusty north wind and cool temperatures; along with varying amounts of cloud cover There is the outside chance of some light showers Tuesday as the large storm skirts the region; pushing its way north into eastern Canada. Temperatures into mid week will generally see highs rise into the 50s with lows in the 30s. Wednesday looks to be our warmest day at this time with readings attempting the lower 60s.
While the briefly warmer weather will return to the region by mid week it will be short lived as another re-enforcement of cold air; dives quickly southeast from southern Canada and surges across the Great Lakes later Wednesday into Thursday. Cool, below normal temperatures will continue to prevail into the weekend.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Apr 6, 2012
Mom Nature Giveth and Taketh Away; March's Typical Weather Will Come for a Visit In April /Update - 4/10/2012/
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TUE 4/10:
Outlook for this week looks very good with cool April conditions holding through Friday morning with the risk of frost and/or freezes through that time period as temperatures drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Daytime high temperatures will recover first from today's coldest of weather with more abundant April sunshine expected Wednesday through Friday. Highs will push back up closer to normal; into the 50s to around 60, Wednesday into Friday. Look for warmer weather over the weekend but with the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Normal or average highs for the second week of April run from the mid 50s to around 60; while lows dip into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Original Blog 4/6/12
After weeks of unseasonably warm, sometimes summer-like weather in mid to late March; April's weather has been (and will continue to be) a bit more fickle. An upper wind pattern change expected to commence after Easter will bring a longer below normal temperature pattern to the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan.
While much of the country was enjoying that taste of late spring and summer weather in March; mother nature was busy recharging the Polar Regions with some late season blasts of cold air. In other words; the freezer door on the proverbial meteorological freezer is again, about to be opened! All model indications point to a rather robust Arctic to Great Lakes region jet stream trajectory during the second week of April. In addition, these latest upper wind pattern projections show a very broad and potent cold air mass diving along for the ride.
500 MB /18k - ft/ Jet - Tuesday Morning 4/10/2012
850 MB /5k-ft/ Jet/Temps- Tuesday Morning 4/10/2012
As with this past week, the risk of frost and freezes will be with us during portions of the upcoming week along with even the possibility some rain and snow showers or flurries. While temperatures will average below normal during the week; this is not extraordinarily atypical for this time of year - like March's heat proved to be. It was this summer-like heat that was responsible for bringing out the vegetation at such a rapid pace. That early warmth is mainly responsible for initiating these colder late March and April morning headaches. All nursery and gardener interests should keep abreast of local temperature forecasts in the the near future.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Outlook for this week looks very good with cool April conditions holding through Friday morning with the risk of frost and/or freezes through that time period as temperatures drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Daytime high temperatures will recover first from today's coldest of weather with more abundant April sunshine expected Wednesday through Friday. Highs will push back up closer to normal; into the 50s to around 60, Wednesday into Friday. Look for warmer weather over the weekend but with the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Normal or average highs for the second week of April run from the mid 50s to around 60; while lows dip into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Original Blog 4/6/12
After weeks of unseasonably warm, sometimes summer-like weather in mid to late March; April's weather has been (and will continue to be) a bit more fickle. An upper wind pattern change expected to commence after Easter will bring a longer below normal temperature pattern to the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan.
While much of the country was enjoying that taste of late spring and summer weather in March; mother nature was busy recharging the Polar Regions with some late season blasts of cold air. In other words; the freezer door on the proverbial meteorological freezer is again, about to be opened! All model indications point to a rather robust Arctic to Great Lakes region jet stream trajectory during the second week of April. In addition, these latest upper wind pattern projections show a very broad and potent cold air mass diving along for the ride.
500 MB /18k - ft/ Jet - Tuesday Morning 4/10/2012
850 MB /5k-ft/ Jet/Temps- Tuesday Morning 4/10/2012
As with this past week, the risk of frost and freezes will be with us during portions of the upcoming week along with even the possibility some rain and snow showers or flurries. While temperatures will average below normal during the week; this is not extraordinarily atypical for this time of year - like March's heat proved to be. It was this summer-like heat that was responsible for bringing out the vegetation at such a rapid pace. That early warmth is mainly responsible for initiating these colder late March and April morning headaches. All nursery and gardener interests should keep abreast of local temperature forecasts in the the near future.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Apr 3, 2012
PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK OF 1965 INCLUDING THE SUPER OUTBREAK OF 1974
As we get ready to celebrate Easter and Passover this year; many meteorologists and severe weather buffs will also recall two of the worst tornado outbreaks ever to affect the southern Great Lakes and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys in early April.
In the Palm Sunday Outbreak 1965, even though just a child, I recall that the afternoon and evening's violent display of weather; once again sparked my interest in weather while riding back in the car from my grandparents in Marine City (along the St. Clair River). The churning, violent sky gave birth to vivid lightning as it cascaded across the sky. I remember my dad trying to tune into the AM radio stations to little avail as static from continuous strikes of lightning plagued the airways. Little did I know, decades later I would write about that terrible outbreak while in the NWS.
In addition, I included the Super Outbreak of 1974 (anniversary today; April 3) written by NOAA/NWS in that Palm Sunday Outbreak 1965 article (see below). I remember the 1974 Outbreak much more vividly as I was in my first year with the NWS. Fortunately for us; Southeast Michigan was on the extreme northern fringe of that terrible Outbreak. Up until last year, it was known as the worst tornado outbreak ever to hit the country.
PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK
APRIL 11TH, 1965
Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI
March, 2005
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI
March, 2005
COLD MARCH LION PROCEEDS PALM SUNDAY STORMS
March of 1965 had been a cold and stormy spring month (several degrees below normal, ranking in the top twenty listings for coldest and snowiest Marches at some locations) in Southeast Lower Michigan with several rounds of heavy rain and snow which lasted into early April. There really had been no surge of warm spring weather to speak of that year until the first week of April, the week which preceded the second biggest tornado outbreak in recorded history. During that first week of April, temperatures surged quickly up to near 70 degrees on the 6th but then, just as quickly, they were knocked back down into the 40s again by yet another chilly air mass on the 8th. Palm Sunday weekend (10-11th) started out calm enough with temperatures actually rising up to near normal levels (mid 50s) under partly sunny skies on Saturday. Many meteorologist eyes, however, were focused on the strong mid and upper level jet stream surging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest later Saturday. In retrospect, this was the harbinger of the rough times that lay ahead, the vicious Palm Sunday Tornado outbreak.PALM SUNDAY
As this warmer, more unstable air aloft approached Southern Lower Michigan, scattered thunderstorms were triggered during the pre-dawn hours. A thunderstorm was ongoing at both Detroit City and Metropolitan airports as of the 400 AM EST observation (Detroit City Airport was the official climate observing site for Detroit at the time and this was transferred to Metro Airport just a year later in April 1966).
The deepening low pressure system and attending fronts began spawning severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over Eastern Iowa, Extreme Southern Wisconsin and Extreme Northern Illinois early that Palm Sunday afternoon. Along with numerous severe thunderstorms, up to 13 major tornadoes swirled violently through that region. As the low pressure center pushed east northeast across Central Wisconsin, the strong jet core of upper winds began to surge northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Region. Severe thunderstorms blossomed out ahead of the swiftly moving cold front, which extended in an arc from the greater Chicago area south southeast across extreme western Indiana along the instability axis. The first tornadoes spawned in the tri-state area (Michigan-Indiana-Ohio) developed quickly and in rapid succession over Extreme Northern Indiana (see map of tornado tracks) starting 545 PM EST, then 613 PM, 618 PM, another at 625 PM and on and on.
It was also just about this time that severe thunderstorms moved onshore into Western Lower Michigan from Lake Michigan. The storms extended from Muskegon southward to the Holland area. At 630 PM EST, one tornado (F3) touched down in Kalamazoo County, while another tornado (F4) developed at 650 PM EST and moved across Ottawa and Kent counties. Still, another complex of severe storms ignited more strong tornadoes over Central Indiana, starting just after 6 PM EST.
CLOSER TO HOME: TERRIBLE TWOS
Detroit Radar showed a rapid increase in thunderstorms over West Central and Southwest Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana by late afternoon. Storm movement was pegged east northeast at around 70 mph! As these storms roared into South-Central Lower Michigan, two horrible twisters were spawned over Branch County, one at East Gilead at 715 PM EST and the other, just a half hour later, southwest of Kinderhook (or, nearly in the same spot as the first). The first tornado seemed to be the most intense and may have caused the most deaths. After striking East Gilead, the storm tracked across Coldwater Lake and damaged several homes along its path. It was about this time (1/2 hour later) that the second twister took off, also plowing across Branch County in nearly the same path as the first. Branch County was hardest hit with at least 19 people killed and about 200 injured, with just under 200 homes destroyed and $20 million (113 million/2003 dollars) in damages.The tornadoes then sped quickly across Hillsdale County, both tracking just south of the town of Hillsdale. So identical where the tornado paths at this point, that the second tornado actually leveled much of the remaining standing parts of homes hit by the first tornado! At least 11 people were killed in Hillsdale County by these storms along with at least $7 million (39.7 million/2003 dollars) in damages, including the 177 homes leveled. As the tornadoes crossed into Lenawee County, about 100 vacation homes (cottages) were torn apart on Devil's Lake at Manitou Beach but fortunately, being early April, most were vacant at the time. However, just south of Manitou Beach, the Manitou Beach Baptist Church was destroyed, burying 26 people alive under its debris. Miraculously, only one man died later from his injuries sustained at the church. Five miles south of Manitou Beach, a family in a home did not fare as well with six members of the family perishing in the storm!
The damage path from these terrible two tornadoes extended at one point up to four miles wide, though some of this damage might well have been also due to straight line winds. At least 14 people were killed in Lenawee County with damages amounting to $5 million (28 million/2003 dollars) and 189 homes destroyed. In the four counties, 44 people were killed along with 612 injured with property damages amounting to around $32 million (181 million/2003 dollars). These tornadoes were ranked an F4 on the Fujita Scale and their total paths were about 90 miles long. The tornadoes dissipated over extreme Northern Monroe County east of Milan. During these two monsters lives, over a thousand (1026) buildings were damaged along with countless vehicles (cars, trucks, boats, etc). With all the destruction that these two tornadoes brought to the area, we were fortunate to capture the wind gusts on a rather resilient wind gust recorder at Tecumseh in Lenawee County.
Another F4 tornado touched down at 815 PM EST and roared across Clinton County into Shiawassee. The path of this tornado was about 20 miles long at extended from just south of Dewitt (in Southern Clinton County), east northeast to Bennington (or just southwest of Owosso). A nine-year old girl was killed and six homes were destroyed in Clinton County, while three more homes were destroyed in Shiawassee County.
As 9 PM EST approached, two weaker F2 tornadoes appeared farther north in Bay and Tuscola counties. One tornado touched down at 850 PM EST in Bay County at Portsmouth Township and tore the roofs off some buildings and destroyed a few barns and trailers before moving out over Saginaw Bay. At 9 PM EST, another F2 tornado dropped down out of the sky over Tuscola County; it then moved east northeast for 10 miles ending at the town of Unionville. Some barns and a lumberyard were demolished along the ten mile path. There were no deaths and only two injuries with these two tornadoes.
A final tornado (another killer F4) touched down near the Michigan/Ohio State line (mainly on the north side of Toledo) at approximately 930 PM EST. The storm tracked east northeast and caught the extreme southeast tip of Monroe County. The worst damage from this tornado occurred on the north side of Toledo with 16 people killed in Ohio and two in Michigan. About 50 homes were destroyed along with a bus that was picked up and slammed down on I-75, killing four people. Damages with this tornado amounted to around $25 million (141 million/2003 dollars).
Much of the Detroit Metro Area observed strong to severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall as the intense low pressure system and strong cold front surged through Lower Michigan that night. Both Detroit City and Metropolitan Airports received about 1.5 inches of rain, whereas Flint measured just a quarter of an inch (.25). As the system moved into Canada, it put an end to the severe weather (well, almost). Very strong isobaric winds encompassed the region behind the storm center on Monday morning, the 12th, with Detroit City Airport (which at that time, housed the wind gust equipment) clocking a west northwest wind gust at 55 mph!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
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