Second Cold Winter is in the Books! So Let's Look at Those Cold Temperature Statistics

Our second cold winter is in the books across Southeast Lower Michigan; so let's look at those cold statistics and compare them to last winter's. In addition, I'll compare the actual temperature statistics of this winter to my Winter Outlook's forecast issued last fall. Some of the things worth noting is that even though this past Winter of 2014-15 did average higher than the Winter of 2013-14; it was still a cold enough winter to land in the top 20 coldest winters list of Southeast Lower Michigan. The bowels of the cold occurred in February which was an incredibly cold month by any winter month standards, placing in the top five spots for coldest Februaries and all time months. It was the second very notable cold February in a row for Southeast Lower Michigan. In addition, by far February was most notable winter month for snowfall. Ironically, last winter it was January that was the most notable for cold and snow. I'll discuss more about the snowfall and storms in an update on the winter after the snow season ends.

Winter 2014-15 Temperature Statistics

Location	Winter 2014-15	Coldest Winter Since	2014-15 Ranking	All-time Coldest
Detroit	23.0/-4.9	1977-78	18th-T	18.8 (1903-04)
Flint	21.7/-3.3	1978-79	17th	16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw	21.5/-3.2	1978-79	20th	15.7 (1962-63)

T denotes Winter 2014-15 tied with 1958-59

                                   Winter 2013-14 Temperature Statistics

Location	Winter 2013-14	Coldest Winter Since	2013-14 Ranking	All-time Coldest
Detroit	20.9	1977-78	8th	18.8 (1903-04)
Flint	19.0	1978-79	5th	16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw	18.2	1978-79	7th	15.7 (1962-63)

  

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Februaries in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest
	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year
1	12.2	1875	39.5	1882	11.3	2015	34.5	1998	11.5	2015	33.4	1998
2	14.1	2015	36.7	1998	12.8	1979	31.8	1983	12.1	1979	31.5	1984
3	14.8	1934	33.8	1930	13.4	1978	31.2	1984	13.0	1914	30.7	1932
4	16.0	1936	33.6	1877	14.9	1963	31.1	1930	13.2	1963	30.7	1930
5	16.1	1904	33.5	1954	16.0	2014	31.1	1932	13.4	1934	30.6	1931
6	16.3	1978	33.3	1984	16.4	1936	31.1	1927	13.6	1978	30.5	1999
7	16.4	1979	33.3	1976	17.1	1934	31.0	2012	13.6	1936	30.3	2012
8	16.5	1901	33.0	1932	17.3	2007	31.0	1976	14.3	1917	29.9	1954
9	17.2	1885	32.9	2002	18.3	1967	31.0	1931	15.5	2014	29.1	1983
10	17.6	1914	32.8	1931	18.4	1994	30.9	1999	16.8	2007	29.0	1938
11	17.9	1905	32.7	1999	18.5	1923	30.8	1954	16.9	1962	28.9	1976
12	17.9	1895	32.6	2012	18.7	1958	30.1	1938	16.9	1994	28.8	2002
13	18.3	1912	32.6	1890	19.9	1942	30.0	2002	16.9	1912	28.3	2000
14	18.8	1963	32.1	1953	20.0	1962	29.4	1992	17.1	1923	28.2	1921
15	19.3	2007	32.1	1880	20.0	1959	29.3	2000	17.4	1916	28.1	1927
16	19.4	2014	31.8	2000	20.1	1988	29.2	1991	17.8	1920	28.1	1915
17	19.5	1917	31.8	1927	20.2	1982	28.8	1953	18.5	2003	28.0	1991
18	19.8	1899	31.6	1983	20.3	1980	28.7	1987	18.6	1967	28.0	1987
19	19.8	1889	31.2	1991	20.3	1929	28.2	1981	18.9	1958	27.7	1992
20	20.7	1982	31.2	1938	20.5	2003	27.9	1925	18.9	1913	27.7	1937
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874. ** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921. *** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

While the listing of the coldest months has yet to be updated at the NWS to include February 2015, it is easy to see where each site would place with the February temperatures available. Detroit's average of 14.1 would place this past February in fifth place. Flint's average of 11.3 secures a second coldest month placement while Saginaw's reading of 11.5 degrees just jumps ahead of 11.6/Jan 1963 for third place.

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Months in Southeast Lower Michigan

Rank

Detroit Area*

Flint Bishop**

Saginaw Area***

Coldest

Warmest

Coldest

Warmest

Coldest

Warmest

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

1

12.2

Feb-1875

79.0

Jul-1955

10.9

Jan-1977

78.0

Jul-1921

9.4

Jan-1912

77.5

Jul-1921

2

12.8

Jan-1977

79.0

Jul-1921

12.8

Feb-1979

77.7

Jul-1935

10.4

Jan-1918

76.8

Jul-1916

3

13.1

Jan-1912

77.9

Jul-1916

13.1

Jan-1963

76.7

Jul-1934

11.6

Jan-1963

76.2

Jul-1935

4

13.2

Jan-1918

77.7

Jul-1931

13.4

Feb-1978

76.5

Jul-1955

11.7

Feb-1904

76.0

Jul-1931

14.8

Feb-1934

77.1

Aug-1995

13.8

Jan-1994

76.1

Jul-1931

12.1

Jan-1994

75.9

Jul-1955

    5  -  14.1 Feb-2015                     2 - 11.3                              3 - 11.5


Even with considerably less snow than our all out snowy winter of 2013-14; all cities managed to place in the snowiest list for February. Again, more on the snow side of the winter in successive blogs.

Top 20 Snowiest/Snowless Februaries in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Snowiest		Snowless		Snowiest		Snowless		Snowiest		Snowless
	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year
1	38.4	1908	0.0	1998	31.7	2011	0.4	1998	34.2	2008	0.0	1987
2	31.7	2011	0.7	1953	29.4	2008	1.4	1992	29.4	2011	0.1	1984
3	28.4	1881	0.9	2004	21.8	2014	2.2	1987	23.4	1935	0.5	1998
4	28.0	1900	1.5	1895	21.2	2010	2.4	1953	22.2	2013	1.4	1983
5	27.6	1926	1.6	1906	20.8	1990	2.4	1937	20.3	1965	1.9	1977
6	27.0	2010	2.0	1987	20.6	1986	2.9	1969	20.0	1912	2.0	1932
7	26.4	2015	2.1	1882	20.1	1994	2.9	1943	19.8	1985	2.1	1980
8	24.2	2008	2.2	1915	19.7	1965	3.0	1979	18.6	1926	2.2	1947
9	23.5	2013	2.3	1969	19.6	1988	3.0	1934	18.4	1990	2.4	1942
10	23.4	2014	2.4	1992	18.3	1946	3.5	1945	18.3	2010	2.5	1969
11	20.8	1986	2.4	1937	17.4	2015	3.6	1984	18.0	2005	2.6	1928
12	19.6	1898	2.5	1966	17.2	1960	3.6	1938	17.7	1924	3.1	1995
13	19.2	2003	2.6	1891	17.0	1924	3.8	1977	17.5	1950	3.2	1919
14	19.2	1988	2.7	1943	16.7	1973	4.1	1928	17.1	1956	3.4	1958
15	18.0	1893	2.8	1968	16.6	2013	4.5	1957	17.0	2014	3.5	1963
16	17.1	1994	2.8	1925	16.5	1926	4.8	1983	17.0	2012	3.7	1957
17	16.9	1985	2.9	2001	16.3	1967	4.9	1932	16.2	2015	3.7	1917
18	16.5	1936	3.1	1949	16.1	1993	5.0	2001	16.2	1962	3.8	1913
19	16.4	1901	3.1	1919	16.1	1962	5.1	1921	16.2	1946	4.0	1964
20	15.8	1965	3.3	1886	15.7	2006	5.3	1958	16.0	1954	4.1	1938
* Detroit Area snowfall records date back to January 1880. ** Flint Bishop snowfall records date back to January 1921. *** Saginaw Area snowfall records date back to January 1912.

             Best performing analogues with 1884-85 and 1977-78 star performers




My Winter Outlook Call back in November (from Winter Outlook for Southeast Lower Michigan)

Temperatures: Below Normal /-1.0 to -4.0 degrees of the norm/

Temperatures are more variable in this winter's analogues and guidance as opposed to last winter when nearly all headlined a cold winter. That being said, normal to below normal temperatures dominate this winter again in the analogues and is suggested in other meteorological data presented here and why the below normal temperature range of -1 to -4 degrees. The largest below normal departures this winter are projected to be south and southeast of the Great Lakes. In addition; recent past seasons along with very recent unfolding conditions and the subset of preferred analogues also predict  another colder than average winter. Analogue timing of the coldest parts of the winter varies but majority suggest temperatures most likely to be below normal mid and late winter.

Average winter temperature for Southeast Lower Michigan for the winter of 2014-15 using the three climate sites came in at 22.1 which is 3.8 below normal.

All Ten Analogue Composite Map Issued in November 2014

Five Good Call Analogue Composite Map Issued in Nov 2014 for Winter 14-15

(only three years avail for composite, 1884-85 & Dec1894 N/A)

While winter turned out cold in all five winters (looking at my analogues & three winter map), it's interesting how mild or warm the five Decembers were in all five winters (Dec 1884 & 1895 maps N/A) giving more credence to the strong likeness and accurate projections for temperature trends to this past winter.

While both January and February were colder than normal in the East, February definitely was the stand out this year and in the past. Remember, the map below doesn't include February 1885, one of our coldest Februaries in the analogues. The coldest blue anomaly approaches -10.0 normal on average for these four Februaries in the Ohio Valley, Southern Lakes and Northeast while warm weather with above to well above normal anomalies prevailed in the West.

Two Best Call Analogue Composite Maps Issued in November 2014

Unfortunately, only one of the two best analogue maps is available since the winter of 1884-85 is N/A but a great analogue none the less - as was 1977-78. Also as an added  bonus, while not nearly the strength or magnitude of Blizzard of January 26-27, 1978; this past winter also contained quite a notable snowstorm on Feb 1-2nd that brought the third biggest snowstorm amount to Metro Detroit ever (and even more than the aforementioned Blizzard of '78) with 16.7". This storm largely helped consummate the 7th snowiest February on record with 26.4" in Detroit.

More later on other noteworthy items about the Winter of 2014-15, including the final tally of snowfall for the winter.

Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Early Spring Moderating Trend Finally Arrives This Week

After weeks and weeks of bitter cold and below normal temperatures this year; March will feel like March with a notable moderating (or warming trend if you will) that was expected in my previous blog to finally commence this second week of March. The broad, huge trough of low pressure that was anchored much of the time over the eastern half of Canada and US, will drift far enough east to allow normal to above normal temperatures into the region. Look for temperatures to warm well into the 40s this week to possibly even near 50. I warn you however, this could be a shock to your system after living the life of an Eskimo in February.

Speaking of February; I'll have the winter temperature statistics out shortly and compare them to the best performing analogues.

Enjoy the early spring thaw!

Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Winter Outlook and Recent Model Trends Converge and Intimate a Cold Ending to the Winter; Part II - Long Term

On my previous blog; I discussed the short term ramifications of the current "Siberian Express" over the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. Now lets look ahead a bit into early spring and what my best analogues and current model data suggest for rest of February into March and April. Taking the analogues that have performed good (over all; 5) and the ones that have performed best (2). So, let's see if past meets up with future (models) for this early outlook. The winter of 1884-85 and 1977-78 seem to have the inside track thus far in overall temperatures and snow pattern.

PAST AND PRESENT 

Out of the original ten analogues winter temperatures below /Detroit/; six were below normal, three were normal and just one above. Remember this is guidance based on the past /analogues/ with similar hemispheric conditions in place along with other variables considered such as local previous seasons weather to even similar solar activity. They only suggest or "intimate" how the weather will unfold for the next three months and a not to be used as much for exact temperature departures nor timing. The overall analogue temperature forecast from the original ten has worked out very well thus far this winter in predicting a colder than average winter. In fact; only one of the ten suggested a warmer winter. More on temperatures; looking at the monthly average departures, timing or the temperature trend also worked well. December was most likely to be normal or above with January and February, most likely to be below normal. And, depending on exact timing; February had the best chance to be the most below normal /-3.4/. It's been an rewarding winter in this regard since timing /monthly/ trends are not always the best predictors of "exactly when". The same can be said of magnitude or "exactly how much" in regard to both temperature and snowfall. It is up to me as the forecaster to use the data/guidance chosen and interpret and interpolate from there for a season projection.

Original Ten Analogues for Detroit: Winter of 2014-15

Between temperature and snowfall, snowfall is usually the more vague or chaotic analogue guidance and this winter has been no exception with a split vote on how the winter would play out for amount. Note, there were five above normal snow seasons, four below normal and one near normal. The snow amount consensus averaged on the high side of normal in the original ten /47.2"- Detroit/ for the southern half of lower Michigan. This area basically extends from Flint to Port Huron (or I-69) south to the Ohio border. Further north; normal to below normal amounts were projected. This snow guidance of past analogue winters was also chosen for this winter.

Out of the original ten analogues chosen for the winter; half of them were singled out to be the better to best performing analogues through mid February. These five analogues thus far, have bested either in temperature and/or snowfall amounts, departures or trends when combined. Note that the February departure alone drops to -6.0 from the -3.4 earlier. Out of the five, only one season contained normal temperatures or below normal snow. While 1924-25 is a weaker analogue, it's snowfall trend was still helpful. Most of these five had similar overall weather patterns across the country and East Coast. Monthly snowfall amounts were quite variable in Southeast Lower Michigan, especially when looking at December and January where it seemed it was feast or famine. This of course, is not unlike this winter (December versus February for example). Out of those five; two are the best performing analogues thus far; 1884-85 and 1977-78 for both temperature and snowfall (first and last analogue).

                                     Best Performing Analogues Thus Far

As of mid February /17th/; Detroit's average temperature is 17.2, or within range of both  February's in 1885 /17.2/ and 1978 /16.3/. Latest indications for the remainder of February is bleak if you are looking for milder weather. It really doesn't look like any major warming trend is in sight this month. As stated in the first section; I looked for this past week to be the worst of the winter weather and now February, to be the worst month of the winter when combining both cold and snow. So much so, it may even give January 2014 competition for its frigid mean temperature /16.4/! That would be something but we'll have to wait and see on that one. In addition; up through 2/17; 42.5" of snow has fallen at Detroit Metro Arpt and I expect snowfall to be normal or better from here on out which would add at least another foot and half of snow. This would bring the winter's total near the 1884-85 /60.8"/ and 1977-78 /61.7"/snowfall totals.

Interestingly; some analogue years with less snow /1923-24 &1939-40/ did the best up until February with a mild December, cold January and below normal snow. In fact by late January; 1939-40 looked to be the best - 'ah but winter was not over yet! The truer, facsimile of this winter would be reveled later as time rolled on. Trends in the analogues were for the worst of the winter, cold and snow combined, to be "back-end loaded" and stated as such in my original Outlook. I feel these five analogue winters are similar to the present day meteorological models in a sense; where all can have similar trends but generally, only one or two is the champ. Overall, when taking both temperatures and snowfall into account, the worst of the winter was expected mid-late season - and this has certainly been the case in February. However; it would be remiss of me not to mention that early indications are for moderating trend after the turn of the month in early March


Future

So that's past and present; what about further in the future? Keeping one eye on the analogues and the other on current long term models into spring does not hold much promise for an warm spring. Keep in mind, this early-mid spring outlook is based on the best performing analogues thus far this winter and model preferences. We'll revisit this again when more data is available early in the spring if views change. While I feel the worst of the spring analogues may be too cold /42.4-3rd Coldest/, I still look for temperatures to average below normal. Only one spring in the five analogues in the chart below ended up normal but even that still contained a cold March. Overall; the data is not pretty with many of the Marches in the top 20 coldest along with three of the springs in the top 20 coldest. In fact; there was no warm Marches in the five analogues with a compounded average temperature at 29.5 or 7.7 below normal. April improves some but still averages 3.1 degrees below normal; finally later spring /May/ shows some promise closer to normal. This overall pattern is very similar to last year's spring. As with any temperature predictions; the timing issue could play havoc on the spring temperature trend which would negate somewhat the dominant trends seen here.

Ironically, this local spring analogue data also reflects what the latest CFSv2 model data paints for the region. Precipitation trends also are agreed upon by the model with drier conditions painted for the Lakes Region with precipitation on the analogues averages about an inch below normal.
 
Temperatures:  Below into mid Spring (March-April)

Snowfall:          Snowfall should end up around normal to above over the
                        southern sections of Southeast Lower Michigan and normal to
                        locally below northern sections.

Precipitation:   Normal to below.

CFv2 Temperature Outlook

                                                    

Precipitation Outlook

Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Update 2/16/15 - Winter Outlook and Recent Model Trends Converge and Intimate a Cold Ending to the Winter; Part I - Near Term

Update 2/16/15 - Record cold over the weekend left Southeast Lower Michigan in the deep freeze. The following tables from the NWS-DTX gives the low down on how cold!

MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1139 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

Values represent yesterday`s highs/lows over the last 12 hours
and precipitation over the last 24 hours ending at 7 am EST.


.BR DTX  0216  ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION              MAX / MIN  / 7 AM  / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
WHKM4: NWS White Lake      :    1 / -23  / -18  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 15
ADG  : Adrian Airport      :    5 / -13  / -11  / 0.00
123M4: Ann Arbor           :    7 / -11  / -11  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 11
BAX  :*Bad Axe Airport     :    1 / -21  / -12  /
CFS  :*Caro Airport-Tuscola:    0 / -24  / -16  /
DET  : Detroit City Airport:    8 /  -9  /  -6  / 0.00
DTW  : Detroit Metro Airprt:    7 /  -9  /  -9  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 13
FNT  : Flint Bishop Airport:    2 / -21  / -10  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 9
ONZ  :*Grosse Ile Airport  :    7 /  -9  /  -6  /
OZW  :*Howell Airport      :    0 / -16  / -11  /
DUH  :*Lambertvilee Airport:    5 /  -8  /  -6  /
D95  :*Lapeer Dupont Airprt:    1 / -25  / -18  /
IKW  :*Midland Airport     :    4 / -16  /  -5  /
TTF  :*Monroe Airport      :    3 / -13  / -11  /
RNP  :*Owosso Airport      :    0 / -17  /  -7  /
PTK  : Pontiac Airport     :    2 / -17  / -13  / 0.00
P58  : Port Hope           :    4 / -12  /  -7  / 0.02
PHN  :*Port Huron Airport  :    3 / -26  / -24  /
MBS  : Saginaw - Tri-Cities:    2 / -11  /  -3  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 11
HYX  :*Saginaw-Harry Browne:    3 / -11  /  -6  /
VLL  :*Oakland/Troy Airport:    7 /  -5  /  -5  /
.END


*The temperature data for these sites above represent the highest and
 lowest temperatures that were reported on the METAR observations
 that transmit three times an hour and may not represent the actual
 high or low for that site. These sites do not measure precipitation.
.....................................................................

The following Cooperative Observer sites report from midnight to
midnight EDT.

.BR DTX  0216  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ

:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / MIDNITE/24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  /PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
MDLM4: Midland             :    5 / -15  /  -6  / 0.00 /  0.0 / 4
PRHM4: Port Huron          :    4 /  -9  /  -8  / 0.01 /  0.5 / 8
SGNM4: Saginaw 5W          :    2 / -14  / -13  / 0.00 /    M / 11
.....................................................................

Cooperative Observation values are for approximately 24 hours from
previous OB time to current OB time.

.BR DTX  0216  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ

..................................................................
:       STATION           OB   /MAX / MIN  /OB  /24-HR /SNOW/SNOW
:        NAME             TIME /TEMP/ TEMP /TEMP/PRECIP/FALL/DEPTH
:..................................................................
: ***BAY COUNTY***
AUBM4:  Auburn            :0800/  5 / -16 /  -2 / 0.00/   M/6

  ***MIDLAND COUNTY***
OILM4:  Oil City          :M   /  M / -18 /  -7 / 0.00/   M/10

: ***HURON COUNTY***
BDAM4:  Bad Axe           :0635/  1 / -15 / -10 /    T/   T/9
FLNM4:  Filion 5NNW       :0630/  1 / -19 /  -9 / 0.01/ 0.1/9
POAM4:  Port Austin       :0715/  1 / -15 /  -8 /    T/   T/6

: ***SAGINAW COUNTY***
MERM4:  Merril 2E         :0800/  5 / -12 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/7
SAGM4:  Saginaw           :0800/  4 / -14 /  -7 / 0.00/ 0.0/6

: ***TUSCOLA COUNTY***
CARM4:  Caro              :M   /  M / -24 / -15 / 0.00/   M/6
CSSM4:  Cass City         :M   /  M / -26 / -17 / 0.00/ 0.0/M

: ***SANILAC COUNTY***
LEXM4:  Lexington         :0745/  4 / -14 / -12 /    T/   T/10
SANM4:  Sandusky          :0707/  1 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/   M/12 

: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY***
CORM4:  Corunna 2NE       :0600/  0 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/   M/8
DRNM4:  Durand            :0800/  1 / -19 /  -7 /    T/   T/7
OWSM4:  Owosso            :0700/  2 / -14 /  -5 / 0.00/   M/9

: ***GENESEE COUNTY***
BUNM4:  Burton 4N         :0700/ -2 / -12 / -11 / 0.00/   M/9
LIDM4:  Linden            :0713/  0 / -18 / -12 /    T/   T/7
GODM4:  Goodrich          :0730/  5 / -20 / -10 / 0.00/   M/10

: ***LAPEER COUNTY***
LPEM4:  Lapeer 2W         :0900/  4 / -25 /  -7 / 0.00/ 0.0/8
LPRM4:  Lapeer            :0730/  2 / -23 / -16 / 0.00/ 0.0/11

: ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY***
YALM4:  Yale              :0700/  2 / -25 / -21 / 0.00/ 0.0/17

: ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY***
WHLM4:Whitmore LK 1N      :0900/  4 / -21 /  -8 / 0.00/   M/8

: ***OAKLAND COUNTY***
FARM4:  Farmington        :0730/  6 / -14 / -13 / 0.00/   M/6

: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  Richmond 4NNW     :0800/ -1 / -24 / -19 / 0.00/ 0.0/0

: ***WASHTENAW COUNTY***
AASM4: Ann-Arbor SE       :0730/  7 / -15 / -13 / 0.00/   M/11
CHLM4:  Chelsea           :0930/  3 / -21 /  -8 / 0.00/   M/10
MCHM4:  Manchester        :0654/  5 / -17 / -17 / 0.00/ 0.0/10
SLNM4:  Saline 4SW        :0900/  7 / -14 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/6
SALM4:  Saline            :0810/  7 / -17 / -14 / 0.00/   M/10

: ***WAYNE COUNTY***
DBNM4:  Dearborn  #2      :M   /  M /  -9 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/7
DRBM4:  U of M Dearborn   :0900/  7 / -14 /  -2 / 0.00/   M/10
GPFM4:  Grosse Pte Farms  :0800/  5 / -10 /  -6 / 0.00/   M/13
WYTM4:  Wyandotte         :0800/    /     /     / 0.00/ 0.0/13

: ***LENAWEE COUNTY***
BLIM4:  Blissfield 1SW    :M   /  M /   M /   M / 0.00/   M/M
MRIM4:  Morenci           :0730/  8 / -11 /  -9 / 0.00/ 0.0/5
TECM4:  Tecumseh          :0630/  8 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/   M/7
TIPM4:  Tipton 2WNW       :0800/  8 / -13 /  -7 / 0.00/   M/9

: ***MONROE COUNTY***
DNDM4:  Dundee            :0730/  4 / -12 / -12 / 0.00/   M/5
MLIM4:  Milan             :0800/  5 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/   M/M
MNRM4:  Monroe            :0645/  6 / -12 / -12 / 0.00/ 0.0/8
.END

*All data above is preliminary and has not undergone final quality
control by the National Climatic Data Center /NCDC/. Therefore...this
data is subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be
accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.

_____________________________________________________________________
Original post - 2/9/15
Earlier guidance in my Winter Outlook back in November suggested the worst of the winter would unfold the latter part. Statistically, this is roughly mid Jan-Feb for the Dec - Feb meteorological winter ave and also; the latter half of the Nov - Mar cold season. This call was even in spite of a predicted cold and resultant cold Nov. In addition; the snowfall for the season was suggested it would be back-end loaded with best chance for above normal snowfall mid - late season. After a long mild December; I discussed the changes evolving in the teleconnections and oscillations /EPO, NAO, AO/ and the resultant upper air projections for January.

As we move into mid February; the colder pattern has now held since January and the snowier pattern arrived, albeit gradually over the region with the apex coming in our big snowstorm early last week, Feb 1st & 2nd. So therefore; what does the latter part of the February and March (for the cold season) suggesting? As the name implies; COLD. Both the Winter Outlook projections and near and long term models suggest below normal temperatures for Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan, especially the eastern Great Lakes! First off in this particular blog; let's look at the Near Term; the next week to 10 days -  or until later February.

Near Term Weather Outlook; Below to well below normal temperatures (normal
highs/lows/means for mid February; mid 30s/lower 20s/upper 20s)

Model consensus with EPO trend support continues to advertize very cold, Arctic air surging across the Polar regions from Siberia into the eastern half of Canada and the U.S. Cold wave after cold wave of air is projected into the Lakes Region beginning mid week, then over the week end and again, mid next week with some slight moderation between the frigid cold surges! There is also the chance of some significant measurable snow over the weekend and again early - mid next week. If notable snows look likely; I'll update the blog on that account.

In an event; each one of these Arctic outbreak fronts will be followed by massive arctic high pressure "icebergs" which will float down on the "Siberian Express". Besides the snow and lake effect snow showers; blustery, strong gusty northerly winds will announce the arrival of the bitter cold air masses. At this time, the worst of the weather /cold & possible snow/ is expected over the Valentines weekend and possibly again, early - mid next week. Be prepared for what I believe will be the coldest and subsequent, roughest part of the winter with low wind chills! Depending on cloud cover and wind; several days of single figure and teen highs with below zero morning lows are quite possible from mid week until mid week. Of course; as with any weather projection; particulars can change somewhat (warmer, colder, more snow, less snow) but I'm fairly confident with this projected pattern; so be prepared for at least some of the coldest weather this winter.

Of course this means more strain on heating appliances, cars and other machinery and more rapid ice development on the Great Lakes...all that is not needed.

        

                                                    Try to keep warm!

                         Stay tuned for updates and Part II; Longer Term - March's Outlook!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian