Jul 17, 2012

How Do Previous Hot Summers In Detroit Stack Up Thus Far To This Summer?

First; looking at June of 2012, its closest buddy in the group of hot miserable summers when using its average temperature was June 1995 with an average of 71.6 (as opposed to this June's 72.3). However; a nearly duplicate for average high shines right on June of 1988 with an average high of 83.9 (as compared to this Junes 84.0 degrees even). In addition; taking into consideration some more heat island affect this June on the average low in June /60.6/. I feel the best comparison thus far to this summer is the Summer of 1988. Though June's low averaged cooler in 1988 /56.9/ leading to a cooler average of 70.5; the drier air masses, subsequent lack of rain, upper wind flow and now, number of 100 degree days into this July thus far; is very similar to that of 1988!  Hopefully, the biggest difference this summer as opposed to 1988 will be the total number of days with 90 degrees or better. Back in 1988, we saw (and felt) an incredible 39! So far this summer thru 7/17 we've had 20 days of 90 or better; compared to 23 for the entire season last year. In addition; thru 7/17 we've felt three 100s at Detroit...all in the month of July. We also just missed a 100 degree temperature on June 28th when we nicked 99.

The Summer of 2005 is next in line for similarity for June alone but with an actually warmer average of 74.1. However; here it was a more humid and wetter summer into July when compared to this summer; AGAIN THUS FAR (as of 7/17) as rainfall can change on a dime and alter things!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The following was written up at the end of the Summer of 2011 comparing the entire summers:

How does this summer compare to other hot summers in Detroit?



     4


2011
Ave High
J-  80.4
J-  89.3
A-  82.6   
84.1


Ave Low
J-  60.7
J-  69.3
A-  63.7
   64.6

  
   74.4


     23




  


Looking at the charts, one can see that the Summer of 2011's average temp of 74.4 is a duplicate of the Summer of 2010 and is nearly a duplicate of 1995 and 2005 (2nd/3rd hottest summers at just a tenth higher). So where does the more notable difference show up?  2011 summer's high temperature /84.1/  averaged over a 1/2 degree warmer than 2010 (and no one will debate that one).  Still, it was far "cooler" that our summer of 1988 when the average high temperature of was 86.2! (editor note: to me and I'm sure many others, the Summer of '88 will long be remembered as the hottest summer in recent memory even though it placed 5th (now 6th) in the hottest summer rankings. That summer saw high temperatures push to 90 or better 39 days with five of those, 100's).  No summer since 1988 has even come close!  It was only because the overnight low temperatures averaged lower with its "desert-like" atmosphere at times). 

The summer of 1995 was the closest to this summer in regards to average highs/lows and number of 90s (there was also a 100 that summer too). The summer of 1955 was a little hotter in average highs (containing 9 more 90s+).  It also had one hot July,  I made note of this in my July write-up.

July 2011 

Detroit July Ave:    79.3 - Hottest July/month on record
Flint July Ave:       76.8 - Third hottest July/month on record
Saginaw July Ave:  76.1 - Fourth hottest July/month on record

Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 12.2 Feb-1875 79.0 Jul-1955 10.9 Jan-1977 78.0 Jul-1921 9.4 Jan-1912 77.5 Jul-1921
2 12.8 Jan-1977 79.0 Jul-1921 12.8 Feb-1979 77.7 Jul-1935 10.4 Jan-1918 76.8 Jul-1916
3 13.1 Jan-1912 77.9 Jul-1916 13.1 Jan-1963 76.7 Jul-1934 11.6 Jan-1963 76.2 Jul-1935
4 13.2 Jan-1918 77.7 Jul-1931 13.4 Feb-1978 76.5 Jul-1955 11.7 Feb-1904 76.0 Jul-1931
5 14.8 Feb-1934 77.1 Aug-1995 13.8 Jan-1994 76.1 Jul-1931 12.1 Jan-1994 75.9 Jul-1955

July of 1955 was previously the hottest July (some data actually shows that July averaged 79.1). The difference that summer was August was also hot with an average temperature of 75.7 (2 1/2 degrees hotter than August 2011). It was June that was cooler in 1955 with 68.5 as opposed to this June's 70.6.

Jul 16, 2012

NICE AND BRIGHT TO BLACK AS NIGHT : THE JULY 16TH, 1980, DERECHO

Step back in time on the 32nd anniversary of one of the most notable derechos ever to clobber Southeast Lower Michigan from Ann Arbor into Metro Detroit; The July 16th 1980 Derecho!
 

NICE AND BRIGHT TO BLACK AS NIGHT  

THE JULY 16TH, 1980, DERECHO

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian
Originally written:
July 22nd, 2005 
 
The word "derecho" may sound unfamiliar or its use in meteorology relatively recent in nature, but the word actually was brought into meteorological vernacular way back in 1888. Dr. Gustavus Hinrichs, a physics professor at the University of Iowa, was given that credit when he used the word, derecho, in a paper he had published in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888. Dr Hinrichs chose this terminology for thunderstorm induced straight-line winds as an analog to the word tornado. Derecho is a Spanish word which can be defined as "direct" or "straight ahead" while tornado is thought by some, including Dr. Hinrichs, to have been derived from the Spanish word "tornar" which means "to turn". This definition and other derecho facts are taken from the Storm Prediction Center's About Derechos web page, which contains many interesting facts and background studies about derechos.

Even though the term "derecho" dates back well over a century, it has only been relatively recent (since the 1980s) that more investigative studies and research has greatly increased our knowledge about these types of storms. Derechos are associated with a line of showers or thunderstorms that are often "curved" in shape on radar and satellite. These bowed out storms are called "bow echoes". A derecho can be associated with a single bow echo or multiple bow echoes. By definition winds in a derecho must meet the National Weather Service criterion for severe wind gusts (greater than 57 mph) at most points along the derecho path. In the stronger derecho events winds can exceed 100 mph.

Southeast Lower Michigan has had several derechos in the past, but certainly one of the more memorable ones plowed through extreme Southern Michigan during the forenoon hours of Wednesday, July 16th, 1980.

Summer of '80 starts out on a chilly note

The Summer of 1980 actually hadn't been much of a summer as far as warm temperatures and dry weather were concerned. The summer had been unseasonably cool and soggy into early July. June's average temperature was a relatively chilly 63.7 degrees, making it the eighth coolest June on record at Detroit. To add insult to injury, not only had June been cool, it also had been very wet. June's monthly rainfall totaled up to nearly six and a half inches /6.42"/, making it the sixth wettest June on record, which undoubtedly made the month seem even worse.

While the first few weeks of July averaged a bit below normal, some good ole' fashion summer-time heat finally began to bubble up into the region by mid month. Hot and unstable air pushed its way north into the Great Lakes by the 15th as temperatures surged into the lower to mid 90s. Up until that time, only once before had temperatures pushed up into the 90s that summer. The arrival of the hot and humid air mass set off some scattered showers and thunderstorms on the 15th, but really nothing of consequence compared to what would generate to the west overnight.

Birth of a Hybrid Derecho 

 

Surface map from 8 am EDT, July 16th, 1980; click on image to enlarge A low pressure area with attending warm and cold fronts (map-2) pushing through the Upper Midwest was responsible in igniting the derecho at the surface late on the 15th. Thunderstorms developing over extreme Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois during the very early morning hours of the 16th, intensified and formed into a squall line that pushed through Northern Illinois between 3 AM and 5 AM EDT. The storms were spawned out ahead of the frontal system as it approached northern Illinois, mainly ahead of the triple point juncture and nearly perpendicular to the warm front. At the same time, a potent mid level short wave (map-3) and wind max (approx 60-70 knots) surged east across the Upper Midwest toward the Southern Great Lakes.

Nice and Bright to Black as Night

The derecho surged quickly east across Northern Indiana and Southern Lake Michigan with a measured wind gust of 98 mph at the St. Joseph Coast Guard as it blasted onshore in Southwest Lower Michigan! While the sky was relatively bright at sunrise over Southeast Lower Michigan, a band of foreboding clouds advanced in quickly from the west, covering the celestial dome. As the forceful storms and associated hurricane force winds approached the area, several observers remarked about the horrid dark green color the sky took on as the squall moved overhead. In fact, numerous people over the years have commented about the "dark pea green sky" that accompanied the July 16th 1980 storm. The green color in the sky may have been reflective of the low sun angle at the time (the derecho moved through region between 730 and 930 AM EDT) and abundance of moisture in the low clouds. It got so dark that many street lights were triggered and popped on over portions of the region. Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued over the region though some remarked: "it happened so quickly and early in the day, it caught us off guard".

The hardest hit regions across Southeast Lower Michigan were Washtenaw and Wayne counties, extending mainly from the Ann Arbor area east into southern sections of Detroit (or south of the Ford Road /M-153/ corridor). While the wind officially gusted to 71 mph at Detroit Metro Airport, much higher winds were reported in other areas (see storm report below) in the strongest core of the derecho.

As one person who witnessed the swath of damage across southern portions of Washtenaw and Wayne counties, the following excerpts from storm data relay the incredible outcome of the storm. In the storm data below, the derecho is referred to as a downburst. In addition, the derecho was accompanied by a small tornado as it exited extreme Southeast Lower Michigan. Tornadoes can occur in isolated thunderstorm supercells ahead of the derecho producing squall line or they may be associated with the squall line itself.


STORM DATA
Counties in
SE Mich
Date
7/16/80
Time
830-920AM EDT

Washtenaw
Wayne
Monroe
"Intense downburst developed just west of Ann Arbor. Path of the most intense damage across southern Ann Arbor then eastward through the Downriver suburbs of Detroit. Winds estimated up to 100 mph in Washtenaw county, up to 150 mph in Wayne County. Innumerable buildings, vehicles and trees destroyed in eastern Washtenaw, central and southern Wayne, and northeastern Monroe counties. Several boats were swamped on the Detroit River. Power off in some areas up to ten days."

Downriver CommunitiesDate
7/16/80
Time
910 AM EDT

Allen Park, Lincoln Park, and Ecorse, in Wayne county "Railroad cars blown off track in both directions in Allen Park. Department store roof blown sideways in Lincoln Park. Funnel sighted over Detroit River from Canadian shore. Tornado damage included in, and hardly distinguishable from large area of straight line wind damage. Funnel continued eastward several more miles into Canada".

It's amazing that after reading about the force of the wind and subsequent damage, that only one person - a woman - was reported injured in sort of a freak accident when the wind forced her into a revolving door! Note the following that was taken from "Derecho Hazards in the United States" by Walker S. Asley, Climatology Research Laboratory at the University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia. It gives an interesting account of the July 16th,1980 Derecho storm damage relative to other storm damage.

Fujita and Wakimoto (1981) provided extensive documentation of the 16 July 1980 derecho that produced widespread damage across large areas of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. They indicated that this storm produced approximately $650 million in damage as it traversed the four-state region. Accounting for inflation (to 2003 dollars), this storm produced an estimated $1.3 billion in damage from strictly straight-line winds. This estimate exceeds many damage tallies from U.S. hurricanes and is larger than the inflation-adjusted damage estimates from all major tornadoes that have affected the U.S. since 1890 (Brooks and Doswell 2001). This single event illustrates that derecho damage can exceed the damage from most hurricanes and tornado events affecting the contiguous U.S.

Graph of wind gusts by month for the U.S.; click on image to enlarge Note the graph to the right which displays monthly damaging wind events in the U.S. July and June are the top months for wind storms. Many of these wind storms occur as derechos over the Great Lakes states (Johns and Hirt, 1987).









Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Jul 8, 2012

Summer 2012 Outlook For Southeast Lower Michigan - UPDATE

                  Summer 2012 Outlook For Southeast Lower Michigan - UPDATE
                  By: Bill Deedler; Southeast Lower Michigan Weather Historian
                                                   July 8th, 2012
Temperatures:

Summer temperatures will continue to average above normal due to earlier discussed dominant ridge of high pressure in the picture. While originally it was thought this would be the case, the ridge has proven exceptionally resilient and containing above normal temperatures as in previous hot summers. This, along with the predominant drier pattern over the region and points west and south (though intermittent convective rains have appeared); will only add to the heat. Originally; I went for temperatures up to two degrees above normal on the warm side and I'm adjusting that upward to; two to around four degrees above normal! If we attain the higher end of the range (around four degrees); that would place the region in the top five hottest summers.

The only saving grace for cooler temperatures over our region has been the periodic plunge of the cooler air from Canada brought on by the large semi-permanent upper low over eastern Canada. Note the pattern expected (below) has appeared with some regularity with the ridge certainly dominant.

Ridging over the High Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley; will periodically expand east across the Great Lakes and East bringing heat into the region. In spite of the strong upper ridge however; will be the occasional influence of the upper level low and trough that made itself known this spring over eastern Canada when it still was able to penetrate; albeit infrequently, well south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward to the East Coast.

Overall; the strong ridge is expected to continue to be a dominant player and will oscillate from the center part of the country to the east; bringing the periods of heat. Normal to below trends will be brought about by the dubious North Atlantic Oscillation /NAO/ cycling lower into neutral to possible negative phases (more below) which would aid in emphasizing the upper low and troughing over central and eastern Canada.


Rainfall:

In my original Outlook, I basically looked for normal to below normal rainfall over much of the region, particularly the southern two thirds. The only change here is expanding the normal to below rainfall over the entire region. While some areas will see normal rainfall; I suspect more areas will see below normal and thus; have a dry summer overall because of the pattern established. My original rainfall Outlook is written below:

 As I look into the summer; I feel this basic pattern will continue with normal to above rainfall from the I-69 corridor north; but normal to below south over the southern two-thirds. 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian



Jul 3, 2012

Models Intimating A Welcome, Cooler Pattern Change Once Again /Update/

There is virtually no change from my earlier blog posted below back on 7/3/12. One more miserable day of heat on Saturday will draw to a close as the advertised cold front glides south through Southeast Lower Michigan. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will ignite as the cooler air clashes with heat. Look for refreshingly cooler and less humid air to prevail across Southeast Lower Michigan as mentioned previously;  at least  through mid week. Temperatures will flirt with average or normal readings for July with highs around 80 to the mid 80s; while lows fall into the mid and upper 50s to mid 60s.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Original blog 7/3:
If you are tired of baking your ass with these temperatures in the 90s; this will certainly come as good news. The expected upper wind pattern discussed in the Summer Outlook and more recently in Dominant Ridge/Occasional Canadian Low will once again shift and allow cooler air to push down from northern and central Canada. This change to somewhat cooler weather will arrive behind a cold front slated to glide through over the weekend (early indications are sometime Saturday). The cooler, more comfortable air will infiltrate Southeast Lower Michigan late in the weekend and lasting into at least, midweek.



                                                                      8 AM EDT SUN


The expected change will come about as the dominant hot ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat across the country retrogrades further west and thus; the cool upper low in Canada digs south-southwest. This has happened with some regularity since the spring and why, we haven't been miserably hot for weeks on end.

There is a general consensus between the models with this pattern change which gives it a bit more credence. Timing is a bit of an issue with again; the front pushing thru sometime Saturday.  As the time gets closer will fine tune both it's timing and expected cooler temperatures. Preliminary indications are temperatures should drop back closer to normal levels of around 80 to the mid 80s. Hopefully this pans out, stay tuned!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Hot Hot - Give Us All You Got!

If you think it's been hot this summer>>>
(Re-post from last summer)

Jun 30, 2012

Strong Dominant Hot Ridge and Occasional Deep Upper Low in Eastern Canada Responsible for Very Warm and Dry Pattern Thus far This Summer /Updated 90 stretch - DTX/

The Summer of 2012 has started just like the past few summers with plenty of heat with above normal warmth across Southeast Lower Michigan. Now with the last day of June recorded in the record books; June of 2012 will go down as the 9th warmest June on record placing a smidgen ahead of 1994's 72.2 (originally 9th place) with an average of 72.3. This places it right smack dab between 1994 and 1991.

Interestingly; neither Flint nor Saginaw placed in the top ten warmest Junes. In fact, Flint did not even place in the top 20 warmest Junes; while Saginaw placed down at 17th. Flint's June average temperature was 69.2 degrees, while Saginaw's average was 69.8 replacing 1987.

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Junes in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 62.8 1985 74.6 1933 60.1 1969 75.0 1933 60.6 1982 73.9 1933
2 62.8 1903 74.1 2005 60.9 1958 74.9 1934 61.0 1926 73.5 1919
3 63.1 1915 74.0 1919 61.5 1980 72.1 1949 61.5 1915 72.3 1971
4 63.4 1928 73.3 1949 62.5 1985 71.7 1925 61.8 1958 72.3 1934
5 63.4 1926 73.2 1934 62.5 1972 71.5 1921 61.9 1917 71.7 2005
6 63.4 1916 72.8 1943 62.9 1982 71.3 1943 62.1 1980 70.6 1931
7 63.6 1927 72.7 1952 63.1 1977 71.2 2005 62.1 1916 70.5 1976
8 63.7 1980 72.4 1991 63.3 1960 70.3 1952 62.3 1945 70.4 1949
9 63.7 1889 72.2 1994 63.4 1928 70.3 1987 62.7 1977 70.3 1967
10 63.8 1878 71.6 1995 63.6 1945 70.3 1939 62.8 1985 70.2 1932
11 63.9 1958 71.6 1890 63.8 1927 69.8 1931 62.8 1928 70.0 1995
12 63.9 1902 71.5 1944 64.2 1992 69.8 1923 63.2 1947 69.9 2007
13 64.1 1917 71.4 1921 64.5 1947 69.7 1991 63.2 1902 69.9 1923
14 64.2 1982 71.3 2007 64.6 2003 69.6 1954 63.3 1903 69.9 1930
15 64.2 1972 71.3 1954 64.7 1961 69.6 1932 63.5 1969 69.9 1921
16 64.4 1881 71.3 1987 64.9 1986 69.5 1971 63.7 1972 69.9 1911
17 64.6 1935 71.3 1923 64.9 2009 69.5 1944 63.8 1927 69.8 1987
18 64.6 1897 71.2 1895 64.9 1974 69.4 1941 64.2 1978 69.7 1999
19 64.7 1969 70.9 1953 65.1 1978 69.4 1930 64.2 1940 69.7 1901
20 64.8 1907 70.8 2002 65.1 1948 69.3 1976 64.2 1924 69.6 1943
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874.
** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1900.

 
Why the discrepancy between Detroit, Flint and Saginaw? Again, mainly because of the heat island effect at Detroit Metro Airport. And, not just the overnight lows on the hottest of days but also on the coolest of nights! The reason both Flint and Saginaw placed so much lower in the top 20 hottest Junes (or not at all) was the decidedly, refreshing cool blasts that occasionally occurred during the month. This was due to our friendly cool upper low pressure centered over eastern Canada that plopped its caboose far enough south over the Great Lakes and Northeast, to break the hot spells. Of course, these cooler infiltrations happened at Detroit too but on several occasions; that cooler air was introduced across the region on a north to northeast wind. This is not conducive to the coolest of nights at Metro with the wind flow across the urban and suburban areas into Metro Airport.

With all the heat lately, it is easy to forget the strong cool blasts Southeast Lower Michigan did see in June. As a comparison; Flint's temperatures fell into the 40s for overnight lows ten times during the month and two of those were 42 degrees, ten degrees from freezing! Saginaw saw overnight lows fall into the 40s five times with the lowest; a double 46. Detroit had a lone 49 degree low for the month but still, there were numerous 50s. Take away the heat island effect; and I doubt Detroit would have placed much above the mid teens in the top 20 warmest Junes, like Saginaw. Unfortunately, this micro-climate does affect temperatures (mainly overnight lows) at Detroit and several other major cities...polluting long term records (but don't get me started ;-)).

Last year's hot Summer of 2011; tied with 2010 in Detroit at 74.4 for fourth hottest summer! We also did end up with 23 days where the temperature rose to 90 degrees or better. Thus far we are moving right along on the 90 degree track again with already 11 days of 90 degrees or better at Detroit; average is about 12-14. Even though Flint did not place in the top 20 warmest Junes; there still were 7 days with 90 degrees or better in June and one 100 (8 for the season). This is the best example of the contrasting temperatures during the month! Here Flint has had 7 days of 90 degree or better, including the 100...yet failed to even place in the top 20 warmest Junes! Want more proof? Get a load of Flint's June temperature extremes...100 degrees and two 42 degrees!

Why so hot; yet "so cool" with average temperatures just  2 1/2 degrees above normal? DRY! That's right, the upper wind pattern thus far this summer has been conducive to bring the blistering heat out of the Great Plains and Midwest, east into the Great Lakes. While to a lesser extent, the upper flow over Canada has occasional been impressive enough to break through the hot ridge and back it off further west and  thus keeping the worst of the heat; west and southwest of us until really just this past several days. While this has helped in the temperature department somewhat; it had added to the dry conditions. When these cooler air masses have surged out of Canada, they flow across the relatively, cool and dry continental regions of Canada. This, combined with the prevalence of the strong hot ridge west and over us; has lead to a relatively scant moisture supply being the usual Gulf summer moisture has been cut back some. 

Since the hot ridge has been so dominant over the country; increasingly dry soil conditions are exacerbating the heat and thus, exacerbate the dry conditions. Simply put; they feed on one another!  That's why it's been so easy to pop into the 90s...just look at your yard...it's becoming semi-arid out there in many places! This comes, of course,  at the worse time possible in the growing season. Many areas are at least two to nearly four inches below normal in this years growing season! A season that still has at least two solid months left yet. I feel this dry weather phenomena is just as important as any heat (and there at least so far, we've had some relief).

Check out the latest Drought and Dry Index Map>>>



 This map below, shows the growing season (90 day) precipitation (or really lack of), percent of normal departure.

And this map below, shows the expansion for the below normal rainfall for June (30 day percent of normal).
Note the worsening dry conditions as relayed by the percent of normal rainfall (or really, lack of).


Next up...
With the dominance of the hot ridge of high pressure thus far, I will be updating my Summer Outlook for the region by boosting temperature departures a bit higher anyways than I originally indicated. On the precipitation side of things; drier conditions looked like they'd be most likely from I-69 south; across two-thirds of the region. Preliminary indications here are; I will likely encompass the whole region but want to look at some indicators.

So then; will strong hot upper ridge continue to be the dominant player in our weather or will it begin to be squashed more often by the Canadian Low? And what of severe weather? Thus far, most of the action has been around us, especially south...will this continue?

Look for my mid-summer update within a week or two!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

 

Jun 19, 2012

Competing Amplified Upper Air Pattern Coming To Fruition

Back in the Summer Outlook I displayed and discussed the two main weather patterns that seemed to me the most likely to "compete" during the summer months. Actually; I felt mother nature tipped her hand at the most likely weather pattern for the summer back in the spring and discussed that in the Outlook.

Overall; the strong ridge is expected to continue to be a dominant player and will oscillate from the center part of the country to the east; bringing the periods of heat. Normal to below trends will be brought about by the dubious North Atlantic Oscillation /NAO/ cycling lower into neutral to possible negative phases (more below) which would aid in emphasizing the upper low and troughing over central and eastern Canada.


This pattern has been well represented during the past several weeks with the cool and hot periods seen this June. Latest model trends continue to advertise this amplified competition... let's take a look at it on this hot day.


Present 500 MB: Tue 2PM 6/19



Present 850 MB: Tue 2PM 6/19
 

 Projected 500 MB Mon 10 AM 6/25


Note the complete flip-flop of the upper air jet pattern across North America! Not only the flip-flop change but the amplification is quite extraordinary one week from July!

Projected 850 MB Mon 10 AM 6/25

Likewise the cool surge of 850 MB temperatures (note the core of +3C over much of central and northern Michigan).




Another model for comparison to this anomalous pattern is the ECMWF and believe me it's no tamer. Just look the projected amplification of the 500 MB pattern, a strong ridge extends well into the Arctic circle while at the same time; the cold upper 500 MB vortex is displaced well south for late June over the eastern Great lakes. This is very reminiscent of some patterns seen earlier this spring!

 Projected 500 MB TUE 8 AM 6/26



What is even more fascinating is that the GFS strongly suggested this pattern way back on the 12th of June. Fascinating IF the actual upper air pattern resembles this anomalous projection that was about two weeks out!






Of course this is PROJECTED by both models and isn't actually observed data but with both models projecting such a strong amplified pattern...it bears watching.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian