Projected Dry Spell Materialized Across Southeast Lower Michigan

In my Summer Outlook there was a fairly strong signal that our wet year thus far through the spring would dry-out somewhat and sometime during the summer. In the Summer Outlook:


RAINFALL:

"All researched data suggests a normal to below normal rainfall summer. While there were a few moderately wet summers, they were at a minimum. The wettest summer by far was the cool and wet summer of 2000 (No repeat, please)! Most summers indicated at least one dry spell, typical for summers in these parts with the majority of analogue years showing one notable (an inch or more) rain deficit month. This would be a drop from current trends thus far this wet year".

Thus far this July, many areas have seen a 1/4" or less of rain in the last two weeks. The only minor exception has been in the Saginaw Valley to the tip of the Thumb that was brushed with more measurable rain Friday. Detroit Metro Airport has reported only a trace thus far for the month through the 13th.

Perhaps no where is the lack of rain more evident (except for your backyard) than the percentage of normal rain maps.

RAINFALL:

Map 1

Last 30 days

Map 2

Last Two Weeks

Map 1
In the past month, most of Southeast Lower Michigan has accumulated 50% - 75% of its normal rain. That isn't great with most of the rain falling back in mid June with little appreciative rain since then.

Map 2
The lack of rain can be really appreciated looking at Map 2. Most areas have seen less that less 1/4" of rain in July thus far. However; remember that map time-period could be extended and actually encompass the past three weeks from June 23rd - July 13th.

Adding insult to injury; it's been hot this past month with the majority of the time high temperatures averaged 2 - 4 degrees above normal.


TEMPS:

Map 3

While chances of rain are up the next few days (Sat-Mon night) I'm not too excited yet, as our below average rainfall trend may still hold sway.

Seriously though; I'm really hoping we break the dry spell during the second half of July and it makes up for the dry first part. Looking further out this week; if we don't get any appreciable rain the next few days, then rain chances will dwindle back down to zilch the remainder of the work week. The good news though is the cooler and drier air scheduled for Tuesday through most of the week.

Keep the hoses handy.





Making weather fun while we ALL learn,
 Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian