Second Cold Winter is in the Books! So Let's Look at Those Cold Temperature Statistics

Our second cold winter is in the books across Southeast Lower Michigan; so let's look at those cold statistics and compare them to last winter's. In addition, I'll compare the actual temperature statistics of this winter to my Winter Outlook's forecast issued last fall. Some of the things worth noting is that even though this past Winter of 2014-15 did average higher than the Winter of 2013-14; it was still a cold enough winter to land in the top 20 coldest winters list of Southeast Lower Michigan. The bowels of the cold occurred in February which was an incredibly cold month by any winter month standards, placing in the top five spots for coldest Februaries and all time months. It was the second very notable cold February in a row for Southeast Lower Michigan. In addition, by far February was most notable winter month for snowfall. Ironically, last winter it was January that was the most notable for cold and snow. I'll discuss more about the snowfall and storms in an update on the winter after the snow season ends.

Winter 2014-15 Temperature Statistics

Location	Winter 2014-15	Coldest Winter Since	2014-15 Ranking	All-time Coldest
Detroit	23.0/-4.9	1977-78	18th-T	18.8 (1903-04)
Flint	21.7/-3.3	1978-79	17th	16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw	21.5/-3.2	1978-79	20th	15.7 (1962-63)

T denotes Winter 2014-15 tied with 1958-59

                                   Winter 2013-14 Temperature Statistics

Location	Winter 2013-14	Coldest Winter Since	2013-14 Ranking	All-time Coldest
Detroit	20.9	1977-78	8th	18.8 (1903-04)
Flint	19.0	1978-79	5th	16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw	18.2	1978-79	7th	15.7 (1962-63)

  

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Februaries in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest
	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year
1	12.2	1875	39.5	1882	11.3	2015	34.5	1998	11.5	2015	33.4	1998
2	14.1	2015	36.7	1998	12.8	1979	31.8	1983	12.1	1979	31.5	1984
3	14.8	1934	33.8	1930	13.4	1978	31.2	1984	13.0	1914	30.7	1932
4	16.0	1936	33.6	1877	14.9	1963	31.1	1930	13.2	1963	30.7	1930
5	16.1	1904	33.5	1954	16.0	2014	31.1	1932	13.4	1934	30.6	1931
6	16.3	1978	33.3	1984	16.4	1936	31.1	1927	13.6	1978	30.5	1999
7	16.4	1979	33.3	1976	17.1	1934	31.0	2012	13.6	1936	30.3	2012
8	16.5	1901	33.0	1932	17.3	2007	31.0	1976	14.3	1917	29.9	1954
9	17.2	1885	32.9	2002	18.3	1967	31.0	1931	15.5	2014	29.1	1983
10	17.6	1914	32.8	1931	18.4	1994	30.9	1999	16.8	2007	29.0	1938
11	17.9	1905	32.7	1999	18.5	1923	30.8	1954	16.9	1962	28.9	1976
12	17.9	1895	32.6	2012	18.7	1958	30.1	1938	16.9	1994	28.8	2002
13	18.3	1912	32.6	1890	19.9	1942	30.0	2002	16.9	1912	28.3	2000
14	18.8	1963	32.1	1953	20.0	1962	29.4	1992	17.1	1923	28.2	1921
15	19.3	2007	32.1	1880	20.0	1959	29.3	2000	17.4	1916	28.1	1927
16	19.4	2014	31.8	2000	20.1	1988	29.2	1991	17.8	1920	28.1	1915
17	19.5	1917	31.8	1927	20.2	1982	28.8	1953	18.5	2003	28.0	1991
18	19.8	1899	31.6	1983	20.3	1980	28.7	1987	18.6	1967	28.0	1987
19	19.8	1889	31.2	1991	20.3	1929	28.2	1981	18.9	1958	27.7	1992
20	20.7	1982	31.2	1938	20.5	2003	27.9	1925	18.9	1913	27.7	1937
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874. ** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921. *** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

While the listing of the coldest months has yet to be updated at the NWS to include February 2015, it is easy to see where each site would place with the February temperatures available. Detroit's average of 14.1 would place this past February in fifth place. Flint's average of 11.3 secures a second coldest month placement while Saginaw's reading of 11.5 degrees just jumps ahead of 11.6/Jan 1963 for third place.

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Months in Southeast Lower Michigan

Rank

Detroit Area*

Flint Bishop**

Saginaw Area***

Coldest

Warmest

Coldest

Warmest

Coldest

Warmest

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

Temp

Year

1

12.2

Feb-1875

79.0

Jul-1955

10.9

Jan-1977

78.0

Jul-1921

9.4

Jan-1912

77.5

Jul-1921

2

12.8

Jan-1977

79.0

Jul-1921

12.8

Feb-1979

77.7

Jul-1935

10.4

Jan-1918

76.8

Jul-1916

3

13.1

Jan-1912

77.9

Jul-1916

13.1

Jan-1963

76.7

Jul-1934

11.6

Jan-1963

76.2

Jul-1935

4

13.2

Jan-1918

77.7

Jul-1931

13.4

Feb-1978

76.5

Jul-1955

11.7

Feb-1904

76.0

Jul-1931

14.8

Feb-1934

77.1

Aug-1995

13.8

Jan-1994

76.1

Jul-1931

12.1

Jan-1994

75.9

Jul-1955

    5  -  14.1 Feb-2015                     2 - 11.3                              3 - 11.5


Even with considerably less snow than our all out snowy winter of 2013-14; all cities managed to place in the snowiest list for February. Again, more on the snow side of the winter in successive blogs.

Top 20 Snowiest/Snowless Februaries in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Snowiest		Snowless		Snowiest		Snowless		Snowiest		Snowless
	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year
1	38.4	1908	0.0	1998	31.7	2011	0.4	1998	34.2	2008	0.0	1987
2	31.7	2011	0.7	1953	29.4	2008	1.4	1992	29.4	2011	0.1	1984
3	28.4	1881	0.9	2004	21.8	2014	2.2	1987	23.4	1935	0.5	1998
4	28.0	1900	1.5	1895	21.2	2010	2.4	1953	22.2	2013	1.4	1983
5	27.6	1926	1.6	1906	20.8	1990	2.4	1937	20.3	1965	1.9	1977
6	27.0	2010	2.0	1987	20.6	1986	2.9	1969	20.0	1912	2.0	1932
7	26.4	2015	2.1	1882	20.1	1994	2.9	1943	19.8	1985	2.1	1980
8	24.2	2008	2.2	1915	19.7	1965	3.0	1979	18.6	1926	2.2	1947
9	23.5	2013	2.3	1969	19.6	1988	3.0	1934	18.4	1990	2.4	1942
10	23.4	2014	2.4	1992	18.3	1946	3.5	1945	18.3	2010	2.5	1969
11	20.8	1986	2.4	1937	17.4	2015	3.6	1984	18.0	2005	2.6	1928
12	19.6	1898	2.5	1966	17.2	1960	3.6	1938	17.7	1924	3.1	1995
13	19.2	2003	2.6	1891	17.0	1924	3.8	1977	17.5	1950	3.2	1919
14	19.2	1988	2.7	1943	16.7	1973	4.1	1928	17.1	1956	3.4	1958
15	18.0	1893	2.8	1968	16.6	2013	4.5	1957	17.0	2014	3.5	1963
16	17.1	1994	2.8	1925	16.5	1926	4.8	1983	17.0	2012	3.7	1957
17	16.9	1985	2.9	2001	16.3	1967	4.9	1932	16.2	2015	3.7	1917
18	16.5	1936	3.1	1949	16.1	1993	5.0	2001	16.2	1962	3.8	1913
19	16.4	1901	3.1	1919	16.1	1962	5.1	1921	16.2	1946	4.0	1964
20	15.8	1965	3.3	1886	15.7	2006	5.3	1958	16.0	1954	4.1	1938
* Detroit Area snowfall records date back to January 1880. ** Flint Bishop snowfall records date back to January 1921. *** Saginaw Area snowfall records date back to January 1912.

             Best performing analogues with 1884-85 and 1977-78 star performers




My Winter Outlook Call back in November (from Winter Outlook for Southeast Lower Michigan)

Temperatures: Below Normal /-1.0 to -4.0 degrees of the norm/

Temperatures are more variable in this winter's analogues and guidance as opposed to last winter when nearly all headlined a cold winter. That being said, normal to below normal temperatures dominate this winter again in the analogues and is suggested in other meteorological data presented here and why the below normal temperature range of -1 to -4 degrees. The largest below normal departures this winter are projected to be south and southeast of the Great Lakes. In addition; recent past seasons along with very recent unfolding conditions and the subset of preferred analogues also predict  another colder than average winter. Analogue timing of the coldest parts of the winter varies but majority suggest temperatures most likely to be below normal mid and late winter.

Average winter temperature for Southeast Lower Michigan for the winter of 2014-15 using the three climate sites came in at 22.1 which is 3.8 below normal.

All Ten Analogue Composite Map Issued in November 2014

Five Good Call Analogue Composite Map Issued in Nov 2014 for Winter 14-15

(only three years avail for composite, 1884-85 & Dec1894 N/A)

While winter turned out cold in all five winters (looking at my analogues & three winter map), it's interesting how mild or warm the five Decembers were in all five winters (Dec 1884 & 1895 maps N/A) giving more credence to the strong likeness and accurate projections for temperature trends to this past winter.

While both January and February were colder than normal in the East, February definitely was the stand out this year and in the past. Remember, the map below doesn't include February 1885, one of our coldest Februaries in the analogues. The coldest blue anomaly approaches -10.0 normal on average for these four Februaries in the Ohio Valley, Southern Lakes and Northeast while warm weather with above to well above normal anomalies prevailed in the West.

Two Best Call Analogue Composite Maps Issued in November 2014

Unfortunately, only one of the two best analogue maps is available since the winter of 1884-85 is N/A but a great analogue none the less - as was 1977-78. Also as an added  bonus, while not nearly the strength or magnitude of Blizzard of January 26-27, 1978; this past winter also contained quite a notable snowstorm on Feb 1-2nd that brought the third biggest snowstorm amount to Metro Detroit ever (and even more than the aforementioned Blizzard of '78) with 16.7". This storm largely helped consummate the 7th snowiest February on record with 26.4" in Detroit.

More later on other noteworthy items about the Winter of 2014-15, including the final tally of snowfall for the winter.

Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Early Spring Moderating Trend Finally Arrives This Week

After weeks and weeks of bitter cold and below normal temperatures this year; March will feel like March with a notable moderating (or warming trend if you will) that was expected in my previous blog to finally commence this second week of March. The broad, huge trough of low pressure that was anchored much of the time over the eastern half of Canada and US, will drift far enough east to allow normal to above normal temperatures into the region. Look for temperatures to warm well into the 40s this week to possibly even near 50. I warn you however, this could be a shock to your system after living the life of an Eskimo in February.

Speaking of February; I'll have the winter temperature statistics out shortly and compare them to the best performing analogues.

Enjoy the early spring thaw!

Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian