...Little Change To Earlier Post as One of the Worst Halloween Evening's is on Tap for the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan...
A very strong Polar plunge of unseasonably cold air for Halloween is ongoing across the Great Lakes and Michigan. Increasingly stiff, strong north winds will drive bone-chilling rain showers mixing with and then changing to snow showers as evening approaches. Temperatures will be steady to slowly falling through the 30s and be in the upper 20s to mid 30s by trick or treat time in the early to mid evening. Readings will bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s overnight. What will make it even more brutal will be the "straight out of Arctic north winds" at their highest, 25 to 35 mph gusting into the 40s!
A Hallow's Eve not fit for man nor beast! Well, maybe a Polar Bear or Penguin. ;-)
Halloween Time Records
Looking at records at Detroit for Halloween shows the record low MAXIMUM is a cold 34 degrees/1917/ for the 31st; while the record low is a very cold 21 back in 1988. Neither will be realized at Detroit today, since the timing of the cold air allowed an early in the day high. Later, the low before midnight tonight, Halloween night will hold well above 21 degrees. At Flint, the record low maximum on Halloween is 37 /1993/ and the record low is 20 degrees in 1925; while Saginaw's record low maximum is 32 /1917/ and record low for Halloween is 19 /1925/.
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Original post 10/27/14 -
An impressive shot of Polar air has been projected for days now to slam into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, then push on into the Northeast during the 31st, Halloween. While models of course, have been varying somewhat on intensity and location, they are now just getting a better "feel" for this cold plunge. This should be easily the coldest air thus far this autumn season with temperatures diving down into the 30s by early Friday morning and then; holding steady to slowly falling for the balance of the day! By trick or treat time, readings may be as low as the mid 20s to lower 30s range across Southeast Lower Michigan. Along with this early "Polar Express" will be rain and snow showers, then just snow showers will be flyin' along with the blustery cold weather.
If this system comes down as intense as I feel it could be, with some models intimating a weak low pressure over the Eastern Lakes, there may even be some scattered areas of light accumulations of snow on grassy surfaces in the coldest locations. In any event, the weather will be more appropriate for Christmas than Halloween. Well, I guess if the stores can mix up the seasons with merchandise - why not mom nature? :-) Winter-like gear will be appropriate this Halloween.
Halloween Time Records
Looking at records at Detroit for Halloween shows the record low MAXIMUM is a cold 34 degrees/1917/ for the 31st; while the record low is a very cold 21 back in 1988. At this time, I feel neither will be realized at Detroit on the 31st since the timing of the cold air will allow a midnight /30th/ or early morning high. Later, the low before midnight on the 31st, Halloween night should hold above 21 degrees. At Flint, the record low maximum on Halloween is 37 /1993/ and the record low is 20 degrees in 1925; while Saginaw's record low maximum is 32 /1917/ and record low for Halloween is 19 /1925/.
The records for November 1st at Detroit show a record low maximum of 30 way back in 1879 - along with a record low that year of 21 degrees. Flint on the 1st, has a record low maximum of 36 /1966/ with the record low occurring not long ago, 2010. Saginaw record low max for November 1st is 38 degrees in 2002, while the record low in 21/1949.
The biggest question on this Polar plunge is where exactly, the coldest of the air will settle over - here in Southeast Lower Michigan and the Northeast, or mainly the Northeast. Just keep the winter garb handy for the chillins (and yourself) because Mom Nature will be chillin!
Next up in early November; Winter Outlook 2014-15 for Southeast Lower Michigan - The Truth is in the Details
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
