Over the next week to 10 days, a large blocking pattern in the atmosphere will evolve over the eastern half of the country; diverting most storm or rain systems well west and north of Southeast Lower Michigan. This will be our first Indian Summer-like pattern since much of the region has as of yet, experienced a killing frost or freeze. It's actually still a bit too early for a killing frost/freeze to encompass the region, even though most areas have fallen into the 30s at least once. This is why I use the term Indian Summer-like, since the overall pattern expected to evolve the next week is clearly reminiscent of what typically happens during an Indian Summer pattern - but with most areas lacking the forerunner killing frost/freeze. True, there is the brief cool down now in progress over the area that will last into early this week, but I don't look for any colder weather than what has been already realized. As the Autumn progresses, a killing frost/freeze will of course be realized over all of Southeast Lower Michigan but even then, it's usually a bit more of a gradual process. For more on what is a true Indian Summer, see my quoted article written early in my Weather Historian career with the NWS back in 1996.
As stated above; the upper air pattern projected by many atmospheric models display quite massive high pressure block developing over the eastern half of the country. This block with time, phases into the Bermuda High out over the Atlantic later in the week. The building surface and upper high pressure ridge is then expected to hold at least through the last weekend of September. There is some risk of rain but not until possibly early the following week (at the close of the month). As you can see on the prognostic maps; the Polar Jet will also be pushed well north into Canada during the upcoming week as the general ridging grows and overtakes the eastern half of the country and western Atlantic.
The warmest of the weather should arrive later in the week into the weekend; possibly extending as far as early the next week. Many of the days from mid week on, will see high temperatures push back up into the 70s. As the weekend gets underway, readings will likely flirt with the 80 degree mark.
Something tells me the cider mills will be doing a brisk business - along with maybe even some beaches for a late season swim? Try to enjoy September's nice side for a change!
Teachers & Interest Groups: Maybe you were thinking you'd like a guest speaker on weather topics for your students or members this fall? In my free time, I would be open to scheduling a talk. Send me your name, school or group, location and topic(s) you wish to discuss via the comment section of this post/blog. Talk subjects, times and fees are negotiable. Must provide visual aid equipment.
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Making weather fun while we all learn, Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian