See:
Courtesy of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab in Ann Arbor MI /GLERL/
https://www.facebook.com/noaa.glerl?hc_location=timeline
3/26/14
First Time In the History of Great Lakes Navigation - No Vessels Made it to the Soo Locks for the Opening!
For the first time in history, no vessels
made it to the Soo Locks for opening of the 2014 navigation season due
to extreme ice cover - results of the extreme hard winter across the Great Lakes.
See:
Courtesy of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab in Ann Arbor MI /GLERL/
https://www.facebook.com/noaa.glerl?hc_location=timeline
See:
Courtesy of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab in Ann Arbor MI /GLERL/
https://www.facebook.com/noaa.glerl?hc_location=timeline
3/21/14
The Warmest March Ever in 2012 is Replaced By the Coldest March Ever (Thus Far) in 2014 - Will it Remain So as Another Arctic Air Mass is On Its Way?
It is always been said Mother Nature has a way of balancing herself out and that certainly can be said of the Marches across Great Lakes the last few years. March of 2012 was obscenely mild across the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan, read it and weep....
Never in modern climate record keeping had there been a March like this
past March for warmth across Southeast Lower Michigan. All three cities
(Detroit, Flint and Saginaw) blew away their previous warmest March
records by about three degrees! Detroit left it's old record warm
March's /1945/ average temperature /47.9/ in the dust by nearly three
degrees /+2.8/, while Flint surpassed it's old record March /1945/
temperature /46.0/ by an even wider margin with 3.5 degrees! Saginaw was
just a tenth shy of the 3.0 degree exceedance with +2.9 degrees above
the old record of 45.1, also in 1945 (see more on March of 1945
from a write up I did back in 1997; including a rather interesting but
depressing account of the weather that followed that spring and beyond
across the central and northeast portion of the country).
From the climate records at the NWS in White Lake /DTX/:
Last March /2013/ did do an about face on March of 2012 with colder than normal readings across the region but NOTHING like this March as temperatures just averaged a couple of degrees below normal.
Note where the March temperature places thus far as of the first day of spring and in spite of our "mild spells"recently. I think what is most amazing in the metro Detroit area is that this March's average temperature thus far is about half of what it was two years ago for March. In other words, we had twice the heat in March 2012 than we've had thus far this March! Think that's bad; it gets worse in the Flint and Saginaw areas. If one doubles Flint's March average temperature /22.7/ it still wouldn't be close to the 49.5 reading of two years ago. Same at Saginaw with an average temperature 22.1, doubling that would give a 44.2...a far cry from the 48.0 degrees in 2012! Another mind blowing item is that the range from the record warmest March to this record cold March thus far is 25 degrees at Detroit! Flint is even wider with 28.3 degrees from warmest to coldest while Saginaw is 25.9. And, excepting for Flint, both Detroit and Saginaw this has happened in the last two Marches!
The anomaly temperatures at 850 MB /5kt/ displayed here in C /Celsius/ for the middle of next week are forecast to be around -15C below the norm.
The map below displays similar Analogue dates & years for the upcoming cold snap at this time of year along with the height departures for above (red) and below (blue) departures. Note late March - early April 1982 one of our season(s) analogues shows up again and is also among them for this time period /19820405, displayed on the lower right/
Try to hang in there because, as evidence by just the past few Marches and springs, this time of year the weather is extremely fickle and changeable. On average, the more typical gradually warming spring weather has been delayed about a solid month (when looking at the three month meteorological spring /Mar-May/ and not the calendar). And; with the turn of the calendar month comes the promise of warmer weather.
Unprecedented Warm March Blows Several Records Away!
From the climate records at the NWS in White Lake /DTX/:
Top Ten Warmest Marchs
DTW
|
FNT
|
MBS
|
1. 50.7 (2012)
|
1. 49.5 (2012)
|
1. 48.0 (2012)
|
2. 47.9 (1945)
|
2. 46.0 (1945)
|
2. 45.1 (1945)
|
3. 46.1 (1946)
|
3. 44.6 (1946)
|
3. 44.0 (1910)
|
4. 44.0 (2000)
|
4. 41.4 (1929)
|
4. 42.0 (1938)
|
4. 44.0 (1910)
|
5. 41.3 (2000)
|
5. 41.9 (1946)
|
6. 43.3 (1973)
|
5. 41.3 (1973)
|
6. 41.4 (2000)
|
7. 42.5 (1921)
|
7. 40.8 (1938)
|
7. 40.7 (1977)
|
8. 42.4 (2010)
|
8. 40.4 (1935)
|
8. 40.6 (1903)
|
9. 41.6 (1938)
|
9. 40.1 (1936)
|
9. 40.5 (1929)
|
9. 41.6 (1929)
|
9. 40.1 (1921)
|
10. 39.4 (2010)
|
Number of days in which each of the climate site had high temperatures at/or above 60, 70 and 80 degrees in March:
| SITE | # Days at or Above 60 | # Days at or Above 70 | # Days at or above 80 |
| DTW | 18 | 11 | 3 |
| FNT | 18 | 10 | 4 |
| MBS | 17 | 10 | 4 |
Last March /2013/ did do an about face on March of 2012 with colder than normal readings across the region but NOTHING like this March as temperatures just averaged a couple of degrees below normal.
Note where the March temperature places thus far as of the first day of spring and in spite of our "mild spells"recently. I think what is most amazing in the metro Detroit area is that this March's average temperature thus far is about half of what it was two years ago for March. In other words, we had twice the heat in March 2012 than we've had thus far this March! Think that's bad; it gets worse in the Flint and Saginaw areas. If one doubles Flint's March average temperature /22.7/ it still wouldn't be close to the 49.5 reading of two years ago. Same at Saginaw with an average temperature 22.1, doubling that would give a 44.2...a far cry from the 48.0 degrees in 2012! Another mind blowing item is that the range from the record warmest March to this record cold March thus far is 25 degrees at Detroit! Flint is even wider with 28.3 degrees from warmest to coldest while Saginaw is 25.9. And, excepting for Flint, both Detroit and Saginaw this has happened in the last two Marches!
| Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Marches in Southeast Lower Michigan |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Yellow Highlight; Rank/Temp thru the March 19th | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Red highlight; March 2012 Temp Ave | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Of course as stated, this March is not finished, the latter third
will raise the mean temperature somewhat as logically just from a
climatic stance, the last third of the month is generally the warmest -
or will it be? Let's take a look.... Latest trends in all guidance is to bring the yet another unseasonably cold air mass down from the Arctic beginning later this weekend and lasting into at least mid-late week before some moderation. At their coldest; temperatures will range in the 20s to the lower 30s for highs and 5 to 15 for lows...or 15 to 25 degrees again below normal. Average highs across Southeast Lower Michigan are generally approaching 50 by the last week of March while lows fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. The upper air ensemble mean representing the jet stream by the middle of next week, displays the source of our new air mass well (and not unlike the numerous old ones) - the Arctic. And perhaps the most telling about next weeks cold...those predicted temperatures next week - the first full week of spring - are normals for the coldest of the winter. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Note the huge ridge up into the Arctic Circle that is aiding in draining the coldest of air from the North Pole, south across Canada and into the eastern U.S. (displayed by the red arrows on the above map). Also, remember a negative EPO (projected below) encourages ridging and blocking well up into the Arctic around Alaska and western North America. A negative EPO is projected through the end of the month. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The anomaly temperatures at 850 MB /5kt/ displayed here in C /Celsius/ for the middle of next week are forecast to be around -15C below the norm.
The map below displays similar Analogue dates & years for the upcoming cold snap at this time of year along with the height departures for above (red) and below (blue) departures. Note late March - early April 1982 one of our season(s) analogues shows up again and is also among them for this time period /19820405, displayed on the lower right/
Try to hang in there because, as evidence by just the past few Marches and springs, this time of year the weather is extremely fickle and changeable. On average, the more typical gradually warming spring weather has been delayed about a solid month (when looking at the three month meteorological spring /Mar-May/ and not the calendar). And; with the turn of the calendar month comes the promise of warmer weather.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
3/10/14
3/11/14 - Update Another Snowstorm to Push Detroit and Flint Closer to Records for the Snowiest Winter
Snowfall amounts from the Snowstorm of 3/12/14 - NWS DTX
Local Storm Reports
Back to top
__________________________________________________________________________________________
-Update 3/11/14 -330 pm- No Change in original forecast
__________________________________________________________________________________________
It's not a certainly by any means -yet- for snowiest winter on record at Detroit but another storm center bringing more snow to the region should bring it closer to reality. The storm is slated to deepen in the mid Ohio Valley region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The storm will bring several inches of new snow to southern Michigan, the northern half of Indiana and Ohio before moving east and intensifying further as she approaches the East Coast.
At this time; the majority of the meteorological guidance is pushing for a general 6" - 10" for snow totals across the now familiar "snow bombarded" southeast portion of Michigan. I feel that is a bit high at this time for the region considering the placement and strength of the system while affecting us, along with relatively quick movement and milder temperatures, pre-storm. Never-the-less, I look for a general 4"- 8" snowfall for the area from Ann Arbor, east northeast across metro Detroit to the St Clair River and points south to the Ohio border. Within this area over the extreme southeast corner; some locally higher amounts are possible. Further north and northwest into Michigan across Flint, Saginaw and the Thumb Region; expect 2" - 5" with some 6" isolated totals possible.
A stiff north to northeast wind of 15 to 25 mph with guts near 35 mph will accompany the storm creating some blowing and drifting as a large cold high pressure feeds the low pressure from the north.
Also, in case you are keeping track; officially Detroit has had 84.1" of snow this snow season and the record for snowiest season is 93.6" set way back in my analogue winter of 1880-81. Normal snowfall at Detroit for a snow season is 42.7". Flint has received 77.3" and thus, that region too is inching up to its record for snowiest winter of 82.9" set back in more familiar times to many, in 1974-75. Normal snowfall for the Flint area is 47.4" Thus far, Saginaw has been left in the snow flurries, so to speak, where near record snowfall is concerned with "just" 55.3" but still well above the normal of 41.5" Saginaw's snowiest winter occurred in 1966-67 with 87.2".
Seasonal Snowfall Stats as of 3/12
| Location | Seasonal Normal |
Winter 2013-14 (through March 12th) |
Record (Year) | Current Seasonal Ranking |
| Detroit Area | 42.5" | 90.7" | 93.6" (1880-81) | 2nd |
| Flint Area | 47.4" | 81.8" | 82.9" (1974-75) | 3rd |
| Saginaw | 45.5" | 58.3" | 87.2" (1966-67) |
15th |
Local Storm Reports
Back to top
Back to top
Photos (Click on thumbnail for bigger image)  |
 |
 |
| Algonac, MI (courtesy of Carol Doll) | Royal Oak, MI (courtesy of Dan Thompson) | Detroit, MI (courtesy of Ryan Jake Jakubowski) |
 |
 |
 |
| White Lake, MI (courtesy of Rick Baker) | Dearborn, MI (courtesy of Taylor Lafontaine) | |
 |
 |
 |
__________________________________________________________________________________________
-Update 3/11/14 -330 pm- No Change in original forecast
__________________________________________________________________________________________
It's not a certainly by any means -yet- for snowiest winter on record at Detroit but another storm center bringing more snow to the region should bring it closer to reality. The storm is slated to deepen in the mid Ohio Valley region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The storm will bring several inches of new snow to southern Michigan, the northern half of Indiana and Ohio before moving east and intensifying further as she approaches the East Coast.
At this time; the majority of the meteorological guidance is pushing for a general 6" - 10" for snow totals across the now familiar "snow bombarded" southeast portion of Michigan. I feel that is a bit high at this time for the region considering the placement and strength of the system while affecting us, along with relatively quick movement and milder temperatures, pre-storm. Never-the-less, I look for a general 4"- 8" snowfall for the area from Ann Arbor, east northeast across metro Detroit to the St Clair River and points south to the Ohio border. Within this area over the extreme southeast corner; some locally higher amounts are possible. Further north and northwest into Michigan across Flint, Saginaw and the Thumb Region; expect 2" - 5" with some 6" isolated totals possible.
A stiff north to northeast wind of 15 to 25 mph with guts near 35 mph will accompany the storm creating some blowing and drifting as a large cold high pressure feeds the low pressure from the north.
Also, in case you are keeping track; officially Detroit has had 84.1" of snow this snow season and the record for snowiest season is 93.6" set way back in my analogue winter of 1880-81. Normal snowfall at Detroit for a snow season is 42.7". Flint has received 77.3" and thus, that region too is inching up to its record for snowiest winter of 82.9" set back in more familiar times to many, in 1974-75. Normal snowfall for the Flint area is 47.4" Thus far, Saginaw has been left in the snow flurries, so to speak, where near record snowfall is concerned with "just" 55.3" but still well above the normal of 41.5" Saginaw's snowiest winter occurred in 1966-67 with 87.2".
Seasonal Snowfall Stats
| Location | Seasonal Normal | Winter 2013-14 (through March 10th) | Record (Year) | Current Seasonal Ranking |
| Detroit Area | 42.5" | 84.1" | 93.6" (1880-81) | 2nd |
| Flint Area | 47.4" | 77.3" | 82.9" (1974-75) | 4th |
| Saginaw | 45.5" | 55.3" | 87.2" (1966-67) | Tied-21st |
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)