Cool Low Pressure System To Bring Needed Rain To Southeast Lower Michigan.

A low pressure system with good dynamics and moisture supply will bring a steady rain to much of Southeast Lower Michigan Overnight into Friday morning. As mentioned earlier this week; this low pressure system's makeup is more like that of a winter-type system rather than a first day of meteorological summer /June 1st/.

Looking at the system and track below does remind one of a good snowstorm in the making for Southeast Lower Michigan. While temperatures will be cool they will be no where near winter-like. As mentioned; the storm center and lower pressure are will bring a steady cool rain to the area; mainly totally .50" to locally as high as an inch.

Much of Southeast Lower Michigan has been on the dry side recently with the early growing season upon us; so this rain will be a welcome sight. This notable change to the upper and surface level pattern; resulting in cooler weather (when compared late May's warm pattern) looks like it will stick around for possibly the first week of June.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

An Impressive Cool Shot To End an Impressive Record Warm Spring (Mainly Due to March);

After a record or near record warm spring; a rather breezy and cool fresh air mass  for ironically; the season change to meteorological summer, will surge into the region the last few days of May and hold into the first few days of June. This much cooler air mass (with a upper level tag from the polar region) will change the record high air mass in place on Memorial Day to normal; then below normal temperatures to close out the month/season. While starting out the week in the 90s for Memorial Day; cooler weather will infiltrate the region in several waves. The first of these being tonight into Tuesday morning and this most important wave will be accompanied scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Another system is slated develop late in the week on the parameter of this "polar air mass" and shoot thru the Lower Great Lakes. Interesting and also ironic; as winter snow buffs were looking for some sort of semblance to this type of system back in the cold season. This low on the models has been showing many preliminary characteristics of a winter-type low pressure for development and track thru the region late in the week. While temperatures will be cool; no winter type precipitation is expected. I will update about this system as it plays out on guidance, also.

Much of the southern half of Southeast Lower Michigan could use the hopeful rain as it has been rather dry; NOT a good time in the growing season for fellow gardeners and farmers. Check out these precipitation stats for Detroit, Flint and Saginaw for the spring and May thru the 27th:

DETROIT:
MAY TO DATE   1.34      NORM 2.93   -1.59           LAST MAY 5.13 
SINCE MAR 1    6.44      NORM 8.11   -1.67    LAST SPRING 14.35

While it's been dry this spring the BIG news here is the comparison to last spring when it was SO WET. Basically; up to date we've had half the rainfall of last spring /14.35/. Of course, further north around Flint because of the flooding rains earlier in the month on the 3rd and the 4th; it's a different story. 

FLINT:
MAY TO DATE 6.87       NORM 2.68 +4.19             LAST MAY 6.90 
SINCE MAR 1 10.23      NORM 7.48 +2.75      LAST SPRING 16.29

Ironically; last May and this May are neck in neck for rainfall at Flint but even with the earlier flooding rains this May, it is nowhere close to last spring's total rainfall to date /16.29/!

 

The Saginaw Valley region was drier but heavy rains trekking southeast across the region Sunday put an end to that; and the area is now on par to be closer to normal for rainfall both May and spring.

SAGINAW
PRECIPITATION: MAY.... 3.62   SPRING.... 7.30

As mentioned; we are still expecting scattered showers and storms overnight into Tuesday morning, then a slight chance Wednesday. So these totals are likely to change.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Frontal Boundary to Lurk in the Southern Great Lakes Memorial Weekend? /Update/

Update 5/24/12:

Really see no need to update previous blog thus far. I was asked (comment section); "What is the most likely time period for showers and thunderstorms on the weekend? I answered this would not be an all the time thing with most likely time period from mid Saturday to mid Sunday. Hopefully; any activity will be of the nocturnal variety and be over Saturday night. The risk of storms pops up again late Memorial Day itself; with a little luck much of that activity will again, hold of till night.  

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Just a quick heads-up about the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend: 5/22/12

Model Projections to varying degrees are intimating a rather strong push of energy behind a cold front slated to be draped across the Upper Midwest, Thursday into Friday. This front is expected to be pushed southeast across the Lakes Region on Friday into Saturday. How far south the front is able to penetrate a strong upper ridge building with time over the Ohio Valley; will determine the fate of our Memorial  Day weekend weather.

As of early this week; I'm seeing the likelihood of the front drifting at least as far south as the Southern Lakes Region sometime Saturday before slowing; and then stalling in the Southern Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley Region. We are still early in this warm season and thus; the Great Lakes are not the warmest. Generally with the relatively cool Lake waters late in the spring; they aid in the progression south with these type of somewhat shallow cold fronts. This is; in spite of the building upper level heights and subsequent high pressure ridge development aloft. In this early time frame; current thinking is the best chance for showers and thunderstorms would be Saturday into early Sunday. The timing and location will be highly dependent on positioning of the front and possible storm development on decaying storm outflow boundaries.  Also; later on Memorial Day itself there may be a risk of storms as a cold front approaches but this too far out to even speculate at this time.

So in one sentence: This front is looking more like it will goof-up part of the Memorial Day weekend over Michigan before retreating back north.

As we get closer to Memorial Day weekend; I will update the most likely scenario. 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

What a Rude Awakening; The Derecho of May 31st 1998!

I remember it like it was just a few years ago; the Derecho of May 31st,1998. I'm sure all on shift will also remember that morning as many of my co-workers and the MI-CON DTX team, stayed overnight from the evening shift Saturday due to the violent weather that was taking shape upstream and expected locally. Ironically; my new and admired boss, Mr. Richard Calcaterra arrived on the scene from what I remember was his first day after relocating from Tennessee. He came in early that Sunday morning to assistance me and then later; to relieve this fatigued weatherman who had been on duty since at least 4 PM Saturday.

Meteorologists, severe weather weenies and all others; take a look at this radar loop! This derecho plowed through Lower Michigan with a forward speed at around 70 miles an hour; tearing up the countryside as she trekked mainly east across Southeast Lower Michigan. Just as captivating, is this longer term radar loop from the Storm Prediction Center /SPC/. Watch as the derecho surges from the Dakotas, through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. And, just as intriguing; note as the cooler intense outflows from the primary line as they plow into the warm and very unstable air mass; giving birth to new lines of severe storms as they join in the "attack"!

It was just after dawn, when that previously eerie tranquil silence of the Sunday morning was shattered by this ferocious evil side of mother nature! I prepared the weather balloon ahead of the squall, just after 6 AM EDT and released after 7 AM. Meanwhile; winds were gusting up to 100 mph out west along Lake Michigan at Muskegon and Holland; and then shortly after at Grand Rapids. Across Southeast Lower Michigan; wind gusts /mph/ that were clocked in the 60s, 70s and some 80s were all too common as this intense severe weather squall flattened or damaged a widespread hunk of Lower Michigan!

There were two deaths attributed to the storms; resulting from falling trees. One death occurred in Pinconning in Bay County as a tree fell onto a house; while the other death one was in Huron county when a tree fell onto a tent with two occupants in Port Crescent State Park. Ironically (or maybe not), two injuries that occurred in Holly (Oakland County) were also a result of a tree falling onto a tent. The damage across Southeast Lower Michigan was most concentrated from Detroit's northern suburbs north across the Flint, Saginaw Valley, and Thumb regions. An earlier write-up on the Derecho of 5/31/98 originating at DTX can be found here; while another from SPC is located here along with a great tutorial on derechos.

Look for my Summer 2012 Outlook due out the last week of May.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Late Frost/Freezes Across Michigan Have Ruined More Fruit Tree Crops That Initially Thought

It was bad enough when we had the late March hard freeze but to get more frosts and freezes over portions of the state in mid-late April was just too much for many fruit tree crops this year.

Note: video explains a lot.