9/28/11

All You Ever Wanted to Know About Indian Summers (but were afraid to ask;-)

JUST WHAT IS INDIAN SUMMER AND DID INDIANS REALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT?

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian
(originally written in the Autumn of 1996)

An early American writer described Indian Summer well when he wrote, "The air is perfectly quiescent and all is stillness, as if Nature, after her exertions during the Summer, were now at rest." This passage belongs to the writer John Bradbury and was written nearly an "eternity" ago, back in 1817. But this passage is as relevant today as it was way back then. The term "Indian Summer" dates back to the 18th century in the United States. It can be defined as "any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or even early November." Basically, autumn is a transition season as the thunderstorms and severe weather of the summer give way to a tamer, calmer weather period before the turbulence of the winter commences.

The term "Indian Summer" is generally associated with a period of considerably above normal temperatures, accompanied by dry and hazy conditions ushered in on a south or southwesterly breeze. Several references make note of the fact that a true Indian Summer can not occur until there has been a killing frost/freeze. Since frost and freezing temperatures generally work their way south through the fall, this would give credence to the possibility of several Indian Summers occurring in a fall, especially across the northern areas where frost/freezes usually come early.

While almost exclusively thought of as an autumnal event, I was surprised to read that Indian Summers have been given credit for warm spells as late as December and January (but then, just where does that leave the "January Thaw" phenomenon?). Another topic of debate about Indian Summer has been "location, location". Evidently, some writers have made reference to it as native only to New England, while others have stated it happens over most of the United States, even along the Pacific coast. Probably the most common or accepted view on location for an Indian Summer would be from the Mid-Atlantic states north into New England, and then west across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and Great Plains States. In other words, locations that generally have a winter on the horizon! But then, what about the king of winter weather in the United States, Alaska? Do they have an "Indian Summer", or something similar? Some places in Alaska are lucky to have a "summer", let alone an Indian Summer! One would certainly have to throw out the notion of it usually happening in October or November, when, winter generally has already taken an aggressive foothold on much of the state. What about other locations that come to mind, The Rocky Mountain States and parts of Canada, particularity in the east and south? Note: If anyone reading this has any information on Indian Summers in those areas questioned, or just thoughts on Indian Summers drop me a note or comment. (Editors note: Over the years while at the NWS, I received several fascinating notes from all over the world on how common and widespread "Indian Summers" were with each having it's own specific local or regional definition).

A typical weather map that reflects Indian Summer weather involves a large area of high pressure along or just off the East Coast. Occasionally, it will be this same high pressure that produced the frost/freeze conditions only a few nights before, as it moved out of Canada across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes and then finally, to the East Coast. Much warmer temperatures, from the deep South and Southwest, are then pulled north on southerly breezes resulting from the clockwise rotation of wind around the high pressure. It is characteristic for these conditions to last for at least a few days to well over a week and there may be several cases before winter sets in. Such a mild spell is usually broken when a strong low pressure system and attending cold front pushes across the region. This dramatic change results from a sharp shift in the upper winds or "jet stream" from the south or southwest to northwest or north. Of course, there can be some modifications to the above weather map scenario, but for simplicity and common occurrence sake, this is the general weather map.

Now we come to the origin of the term itself, "Indian Summer". Over the years, there has been a considerable amount of interest given to this topic in literature. Probably one of the most intensive studies occurred way back around the turn of the century. A paper by Albert Matthews, written in 1902, made an exhaustive study of the historical usage of the term. Evidently, the credit for the first usage of the term was mistakenly given to a man by the name of Major Ebenezer Denny, who used it in his "Journal", dated October 13th, 1794. The journal was kept at a town called Le Boeuf, which was near the present day city of Erie, Pennsylvania. Matthews however, uncovered an earlier usage of the term in 1778 by a frenchman called St. John de Crevecoeur. It appeared in a letter Crevecoeur wrote dated "German-flats, 17 Janvier, 1778." The following is a translation of a portion of the letter:
"Sometimes the rain is followed by an interval of calm and warmth which is called the Indian Summer; its characteristics are a tranquil atmosphere and general smokiness. Up to this epoch the approaches of winter are doubtful; it arrives about the middle of November, although snows and brief freezes often occur long before that date."
Since the writer says, "it is called the Indian Summer", obviously one could argue that term would have had to been used before him and became popular, but by whom, an earlier explorer or possibly an Indian tribe?

Now, after looking at all of this, the question you might ask yourself is, "Does the term 'Indian Summer' really have anything to do with Indians?" Again, there is host of possibilities, read on...

One explanation of the term "Indian Summer" might be that the early native Indians chose that time of year as their hunting season. This seems reasonable seeing the fall months are still considered the main hunting season for several animals. Also, the mild and hazy weather encourages the animals out, and the haziness of the air gives the hunter the advantage to sneak up on its prey without being detected. Taking this idea one step further, Indians at that time were known to have set fires to prairie grass, underbrush and woods to accentuate the hazy, smokey conditions. But Albert Matthews pointed out that the Indians also did this at other times of the year. Other possibilities include; the Indians made use of the dry, hazy weather to attack the whites before the hard winter set in; that this was the season of the Indian harvest; or, that the predominant southwest winds that accompanied the Indian Summer period were regarded by the Indians as a favor or "blessing" from a "god" in the desert Southwest. Another idea, of a more prejudicial origin, was that possibly the earliest English immigrants equated Indian Summer to "fools" Summer, given the reliability of the resulting weather. Finally, another hypothesis, not at all in the American Indian "camp" of theories, was put forward by an author by the name of H. E. Ware, who noted that ships at that time traversing the Indian Ocean loaded up their cargo the most during the "Indian Summer", or fair weather season. Several ships actually had an "I.S." on their hull at the load level thought safe during the Indian Summer.

In any event, there are several theories or possibilities of the explanation and origin of the term "Indian Summer", yet no one theory has actually been proven. Given the fact it has been centuries since the term first appeared, it will probably rest with its originators. All in all, even with the variety of opinions on this weather (or seasonal) phenomenon, the most popular belief of Indian Summer is as follows...It is an abnormally warm and dry weather period, varying in length, that comes in the autumn time of the year, usually in October or November, and only after the first killing frost/freeze. There may be several occurrences of Indian Summer in a fall season or none at all.

Since Indian Summers are fairly common, it would be interesting to find out if there is any correlation between the years that had no Indian Summer (in a particular area) and the type of winter weather that followed. Oh well, possibly another time and another article but enjoy the Indian Summer while its around, because one thing is for certain, it never lasts!


9/27/11

Another Sharp Cold Shot Heading for the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan /Updated 9/29/

The projected pattern development this fall settled on in the my Autumn Outlook has come to fruition this first month of the fall. While September has had its very nice weather and long periods of mild to warm weather, those warm temperature departures have been cut down due to impressive cold shots with another due to arrive at the close of the month. A strong cold core upper low pressure and attending polar cold front will push south into the Lakes region late week.
Cold, blustery fall conditions will prevail early Friday into Saturday with cold but calmer weather for Sunday. Look for a nice warm-up during the first week of October. Check out this warm-up on the surface map loop from HPC and temperature/precipitation plots. To keep up to date on this changing weather scenario with local forecasts, see:  NWS DTX. 

Records (low max's and lows) for the weekend cold period are below, most seem safe but it's very interesting to note the cold of 1974 comes back to haunt us again this weekend. The cold snap we saw mid-month was also similar to the cold snap that occurred in 1974 on Sep 22nd & 23rd (albeit in was a colder in 1974). In addition, the earliest snowflakes ever observed at DTW in Detroit were observed by yours truly (and others on station) back on October 1st, 1974 (all three stations had record lows on the 2nd).

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS

OCT 1ST
DETROIT......46F 1920,1899,1886
FLINT........52F 2003,1985,1974,1924
SAGINAW......49F 1974,1899

RECORD MINIMUMS

OCT 2ND
DETROIT......29F 1974
FLINT........27F 1974
SAGINAW......30F 2003,1974

As we get ready to close the month, overall temperature averages as of the 26th are hovering around normal give or take a degree. By the end of September, Southeast Lower Michigan should close the month within a degree or so of normal.

We started the month with sweltering highs peaking into the mid to upper 90s during the month's open /1st-3rd/, only to be shot down by a sharp cold front and subsequent lows cratering into the mid 40s to mid 50s just a couple days later /5-7th/! A second even more potent cold air mass (originating in the Arctic and Northwest Canada) plowed into Southeast Lower Michigan mid month after the region had just recovered well into the 80s /9-12th/.  This second cold snap caused temperatures to dive down well into the 30s away from the immediate Detroit heat island and lake shores. This mid month cold snap led to record of near record cold at the surface and aloft across the Great Lakes in some areas when compared to surface and upper air data. Some patchy frost was observed in rural areas along with a record low tied at Flint on the 15th /38/ and just missed by a couple degrees on the 16th (35/33)! 

Mild to warm weather has returned to the region as the summer and autumn continue to fight for reign, while producing RAIN (at least in the  far south). Detroit Metro Airport is again closing in a top 10 record wet month with 5.80" as of 26th. This coming after a wet summer across portions of the region, while others were barely normal.

"By the end of the summer, the three climate stations saw normal to above normal with the entire region seeing around normal, though time-dispensed very unevenly, to locally above normal in the heaviest storm areas. Detroit with 7.66" in July saw its second wettest July on record (second only to 1878 with 8.76")."


This established rainfall pattern of the summer was expected to carry over into at least, early fall in the Outlook. While Detroit has seen a very wet September, further north across Flint and Saginaw (as of the 26th) are decidedly below normal for September. The uneven rainfall pattern continues with the Detroit Metro area south continuing to receive the most (and not unlike the Summer of 2010).

9/9/11

Autumn 2011 Outlook for Southeast Michigan

Enjoy the periodic nice weather & Indian Summers while you get the chance!

This fall's weather follows many of the challenges of the Summer Outlook regarding the analogues since we are in a process of change from La Nina phase, to a Neutral and back to a La Nina. This was seen last in 2008 (one of the analogues) however timing is a bit different. That being said, I feel under the present Neutral conditions, the least effect occurs downwind across the country and particularly the Great Lakes. In a word or two, there is no effect and we basically will be at the mercy of the phase North Atlantic Oscillation /NAO/ and the upper level ridge over the south-central portion of the country.  Therefore, this is why one must look to these other patterns affecting the region and researching back in time to see similar various patterns under the broad-scale Neutral Pacific SST.

ENSO
Latest seas surface water temperature /SST/ readings and projections are the most challenging in regards to timing and outcome. The latest data is already showing subtly cooler water temperatures are beginning to take hold in the Pacific (especially Nino 3.4) where phase or state of the ENSO is determined.


In addition, model projections are somewhat narrow but straddle an important area for determining downwind effects across the country this fall and winter. Extreme ranges varying from better than a +1.0 /El Nino/ to less than a -1.5 /La Nina/. Of course these are the outliers but outliers should not be dismissed as they are not always wrong (as my Analogue data has shown, albeit infrequently). In any event, projections and very recent current data suggests a Neutral to weak La Nina  scenario is the likely along with downwind effects and subsequent weather for the upcoming Autumn and Winter. 



Maybe not surprising, this exact pattern is an infrequent pattern to research after the 1970s. This is one of the main reasons the 1970s have been in the forefront in my Outlooks written in the last decade (and we'll look at this in more detail in my Winter Outlook)

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean. The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years.The cool phase is characterized by a cool wedge of lower than normal sea-surface heights/ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific and a warm horseshoe pattern of higher than normal sea-surface heights connecting the north. The last time the PDO trended into the negative phase was in the early 1950s, lasting into the late 1970s.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation water temperatures appear to have reversed to this dominant cooler than average phase. I've spoken about this several time the last few years in my Outlooks. I exhibited this PDO graph in the last few years of my Outlooks and highlighted the change /red line/.


This reversal to cooler water temperatures is more conducive to La Nina development as opposed to El Ninos (which dominated more from the early 1980s to the early 2000s). Between the two dominant phases (El Nino & La Nina), lies a more neutral or "period of change" as I'll call it. This is the time period where one phase weakens and the other begins to show strength. In my previous Outlooks, I felt that we started this "period of change" during the early-mid 2000s, as seen below, in our ENSO chart.
 


Autumn Outlook

Temperatures

Indications are temperatures this fall  will average near normal (or -1.5 to +1.5 degrees of normal) but getting there will be interesting. The data in our analogue falls remains quite mixed and looking at that, along with the upper wind projections, suggest end results will be near normal. The thing that is worth noting were the sharp contrasting cold snaps that periodically erased the longer warm spells.  However, in spite of those sharp cold snaps throughout the fall, it also should be noted that October and in some years, early November had the best chance to contain some of the nicest weather of the three months with a couple of periods of Indian Summer weather thrown in (see below).



Precipitation 

Our last two analogue fall years, 2008 and 2000 both had wet early falls with 2008 also having tropical influenced rains. Preference was for normal to above normal rainfall in our analogues with four wet and three normal falls out of the ten. September was likely to be the wet month with October the drier relative to September and November. Overall, this trend for normal to locally above seems to carry over from the summer rain pattern.

Frost/Freezes
Our guidance indicates temperatures are quite variable and most years our frosts and freezes were on schedule and the more widespread freezes occurred by the third week of October. 

Indian Summer
Perusing our analogue autumns, the likelihood of a period or two of Indian Summer weather this fall looks promising. Note, most temperature patterns in October and November varied considerably in the analogue years, this is generally a prerequisite for Indian summer falls.

Snow Chances 
In these Neutral to weak La Nina Autumns,  the sharp cold air masses tended to bring the risk of snow and the start of winter as a whole, earlier than on average.

So, the moral of this autumn story is to enjoy the periodic nice weather and Indian Summers when you get the chance!

                              2011 Autumn *Analogues

DETROIT SEP OCT NOV FALL AVE
AUTUMNS







1904 63.7 50.5 40.1 51.4 1
1907 62.8 47.3 38.2 49.4 1
1951 62.5 55.4 34.6 50.8 2
1956 60.4 57.5 40.9 52.9 1
1965 66.2 51.3 42.7 53.4 2
1976 62.1 47.4 33.5 47.7 3
1985 64.3 53.0 42.4 53.2 3
1989 61.9 52.1 38.2 50.7 4 4
2000 62.5 55.1 40.2 52.6 4 4
2008 66.3 50.6 39.0 52.0 2 2
Ave 63.3 52.0 39.0 51.4 -0.8







Norm 63.9 51.9 40.7 52.2








DETROIT SEP OCT NOV FALL AVE
AUTUMNS







1904 4.23 0.86 0.19 5.28 1
1907 4.10 1.86 1.46 7.42 1
1951 1.97 4.96 3.48 10.41 1
1956 0.58 0.61 3.32 4.51 2
1965 4.15 2.88 1.20 8.23 2
1976 3.66 2.01 0.79 6.46 3 3
1985 2.59 3.91 5.51 12.01 2
1989 3.03 1.73 2.53 7.29 3 3
2000 6.71 3.05 1.69 11.45

2008 5.99 1.15 3.31 10.45 4 4
Ave 3.70 2.30 2.35 8.35 -0.04







Norm 3.27 2.23 2.66 8.16















Color Temps Degrees
Rain Inches
Legend: Below 1.0>
Below 1.00>

Normal 0.0-1.0
Normal 0.00-1.00

Above 1.0>
Above 1.00>
*Note an updated set of analogues for the upcoming winter will be used
once the fall pattern unfolds.

Look for the Winter Outlook early November!