THE 60TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK OF 1965 AND RECALLING THE SUPER OUTBREAK OF 1974

                                                      Double Tornado Funnels in Elkhart Indiana. 

                                                           Palm Sunday Sunday ~ April 11th, 1965 

Sixty years ago on Palm Sunday, April 11th 1965 (Friday this year), even though just a child, I recall that the afternoon and evening's violent display of weather; once again sparked my interest in weather while riding back in the car from my grandparents in Marine City (along the St. Clair     River). The churning, violent sky gave birth to vivid lightning as it cascaded across the sky. I remember my dad trying to tune into the AM radio stations to little avail as static from continuous strikes of lightning plagued the airways. Little did I know, decades later I would write about that terrible outbreak initially back in 2005 while in the NWS, updated several times in 2012, 2015 & 2022 & 2025. Here is an excellent video as that day unfolded.

In addition, I included the Super Outbreak of 1974 (anniversary, April 3) written by NOAA/NWS in that Palm Sunday Outbreak 1965 article (see below).  I remember the 1974 Outbreak much more vividly as I was in my first year with the NWS. Fortunately for us; Southeast Michigan was on the extreme northern fringe of that terrible Outbreak. And finally; up until April 27, 2011 which exceeded it, it was known as the worst tornado outbreak ever to hit the country.  

 

Coincidentally and rather eerily, I began my career with the NWS working part time early in 1974 when the April 3rd, 1974 Outbreak occurred and retired just days before the April 27th, 2011 Outbreak, that superseded it.

 

PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK
APRIL 11TH, 1965

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian
April 7th, 2025

The Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak occurred on April 11th, 1965 with the violent storms tearing through much of the Southern Great Lakes Region and Northern Ohio Valley. The worst hit states were Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. It is the third biggest tornado outbreak on record; 47 confirmed tornadoes resulted in 271 people killed and 3,400 people injured in just a twelve hour span. Damages from the storms mounted to more than 200 million dollars (1.5 billion/2015 dollars). Only the "Super Outbreaks" of April 3rd, 1974 and April 27th, 2011 were worse. This write-up is mainly from a Southeast Lower Michigan perspective with some data taken directly from the NWS Storm Data files.

COLD MARCH LION PROCEEDS PALM SUNDAY STORMS

March of 1965 had been a cold and stormy spring month (several degrees below normal, ranking in the top twenty listings for coldest and snowiest Marches at some locations) in Southeast Lower Michigan with several rounds of heavy rain and snow which lasted into early April. There really had been no surge of warm spring weather to speak of that year until the first week of April, the week which preceded the second biggest tornado outbreak in recorded history. During that first week of April, temperatures surged quickly up to near 70 degrees on the 6th but then, just as quickly, they were knocked back down into the 40s again by yet another chilly air mass on the 8th. Palm Sunday weekend (10-11th) started out calm enough with temperatures actually rising up to near normal levels (mid 50s) under partly sunny skies on Saturday. Many meteorologist eyes, however, were focused on the strong mid and upper level jet stream surging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest later Saturday. In retrospect, this was the harbinger of the rough times that lay ahead, the vicious Palm Sunday Tornado outbreak.

PALM SUNDAY

The strong jet core extended throughout all levels of the atmosphere as of Palm Sunday morning. At 850 MB (5000 FT), a 50 to 60 knot west southwest wind could be found over the Southern Plains moving through Kansas into Missouri, while at the 700 MB (10,000 FT) level, a 70 knot wind maximum was surging northeast across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. Higher up, from the 500 MB to 300 MB (18,000 - 30,000 FT) layer, incredibly strong maximum winds of 120-150 knots extended from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains.

At the same time, and in response to the strengthening upper level winds, a deepening surface low pressure system was taking shape over the Midwest. This intensifying low pressure, central pressure at 990 MB (or about 29.20") moved east northeast into Iowa by the forenoon hours of Palm Sunday. Its attending warm front surged northward into Southern Indiana and Ohio, while the 850 MB warm front pushed north into Southern Lower Michigan. As this warmer, more unstable air aloft approached Southern Lower Michigan, scattered thunderstorms were triggered during the pre-dawn hours. A thunderstorm was ongoing at both Detroit City and Metropolitan airports as of the 400 AM EST observation (Detroit City Airport was the official climate observing site for Detroit at the time and this was transferred to Metro Airport just a year later in April 1966).

Temperatures climbed up through the 40s over Southern Lower Michigan during the forenoon hours of Sunday, while behind the warm front (along the Ohio River), readings rose into the mid 70s and were accompanied by dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Early in the day, the surface warm front surged rapidly northeast, aided by the strong south winds of 20 to 30 mph at the surface (and as mentioned earlier, much stronger aloft). During the early afternoon hours, the warm front pushed northeast into extreme Southeast Lower Michigan. With the passage of the front, skies broke out which allowed some sunshine to aid in raising the temperatures into the mid 60s to lower 70s by mid afternoon. Dew points followed right along for the ride, rising from the lower 40s early in the day, to the lower 60s by mid afternoon. This helped set the stage for the violent weather that was to explode shortly over the Lower Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley. 

The deepening low pressure system and attending fronts began spawning severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over Eastern Iowa, Extreme Southern Wisconsin and Extreme Northern Illinois early that Palm Sunday afternoon. Along with numerous severe thunderstorms, up to 13 major tornadoes swirled violently through that region. As the low pressure center pushed east northeast across Central Wisconsin, the strong jet core of upper winds began to surge northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Region. Severe thunderstorms blossomed out ahead of the swiftly moving cold front, which extended in an arc from the greater Chicago area south southeast across extreme western Indiana along the instability axis. The first tornadoes spawned in the tri-state area (Michigan-Indiana-Ohio) developed quickly and in rapid succession over Extreme Northern Indiana (see map of tornado tracks) starting 545 PM EST, then 613 PM, 618 PM, another at 625 PM and on and on.

It was also just about this time that severe thunderstorms moved onshore into Western Lower Michigan from Lake Michigan. The storms extended from Muskegon southward to the Holland area. At 630 PM EST, one tornado (F3) touched down in Kalamazoo County, while another tornado (F4) developed at 650 PM EST and moved across Ottawa and Kent counties. Still, another complex of severe storms ignited more strong tornadoes over Central Indiana, starting just after 6 PM EST.

CLOSER TO HOME: TERRIBLE TWOS

Detroit Radar (per NWS/DTW right; Fujita et al. MWR, 1970) showed a rapid increase in thunderstorms over West Central and Southwest Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana by late afternoon. Storm movement was pegged east northeast at around 70 mph! As these storms roared into South-Central Lower Michigan, two horrible twisters were spawned over Branch County, one at East Gilead at 715 PM EST and the other, just a half hour later, southwest of Kinderhook (or, nearly in the same spot as the first). The first tornado seemed to be the most intense and may have caused the most deaths. After striking East Gilead, the storm tracked across Coldwater Lake and damaged several homes along its path. It was about this time (1/2 hour later) that the second twister took off, also plowing across Branch County in nearly the same path as the first. Branch County was hardest hit with at least 19 people killed and about 200 injured, with just under 200 homes destroyed and $20 million (149 million/2015 dollars) in damages.

The tornadoes then sped quickly across Hillsdale County, both tracking just south of the town of Hillsdale. So identical where the tornado paths at this point, that the second tornado actually leveled much of the remaining standing parts of homes hit by the first tornado! At least 11 people were killed in Hillsdale County by these storms along with at least $7 million (52 million/2015 dollars) in damages, including the 177 homes leveled. As the tornadoes crossed into Lenawee County, about 100 vacation homes (cottages) were torn apart on Devil's Lake at Manitou Beach but fortunately, being early April, most were vacant at the time. However, just south of Manitou Beach, the Manitou Beach Baptist Church was destroyed, burying 26 people alive under its debris. Miraculously, only one man died later from his injuries sustained at the church. Five miles south of Manitou Beach, a family in a home did not fare as well with six members of the family perishing in the storm!

The damage path from these terrible two tornadoes extended at one point up to four miles wide, though some of this damage might well have been also due to straight line winds. At least 14 people were killed in Lenawee County with damages amounting to $5 million (37 million/2015 dollars) and 189 homes destroyed. In the four counties, 44 people were killed along with 612 injured with property damages amounting to around $32 million (238 million/2015 dollars). These tornadoes were ranked an F4 on the Fujita Scale and their total paths were about 90 miles long. The tornadoes dissipated over extreme Northern Monroe County east of Milan. During these two monsters lives, over a thousand (1026) buildings were damaged along with countless vehicles (cars, trucks, boats, etc). With all the destruction that these two tornadoes brought to the area, we were fortunate to capture the wind gusts on a rather resilient wind gust recorder at Tecumseh in Lenawee County.

 
The Palm Sunday Outbreak from a Manitou Beach (Lenawee Co.) perspective

• By Dan Cherry, author of Night of the Wind: The Palm Sunday Tornado of April 11, 1965

OTHER TORNADO "FAMILY" MEMBERS CAUSE HAVOC IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN

Another F4 tornado touched down at 815 PM EST and roared across Clinton County into Shiawassee. The path of this tornado was about 20 miles long at extended from just south of Dewitt (in Southern Clinton County), east northeast to Bennington (or just southwest of Owosso). A nine-year old girl was killed and six homes were destroyed in Clinton County, while three more homes were destroyed in Shiawassee County.

As 9 PM EST approached, two weaker F2 tornadoes appeared farther north in Bay and Tuscola counties. One tornado touched down at 850 PM EST in Bay County at Portsmouth Township and tore the roofs off some buildings and destroyed a few barns and trailers before moving out over Saginaw Bay. At 9 PM EST, another F2 tornado dropped down out of the sky over Tuscola County; it then moved east northeast for 10 miles ending at the town of Unionville. Some barns and a lumberyard were demolished along the ten mile path. There were no deaths and only two injuries with these two tornadoes.

A final tornado (another killer F4) touched down near the Michigan/Ohio State line (mainly on the north side of Toledo) at approximately 930 PM EST. The storm tracked east northeast and caught the extreme southeast tip of Monroe County. The worst damage from this tornado occurred on the north side of Toledo with 16 people killed in Ohio and two in Michigan. About 50 homes were destroyed along with a bus that was picked up and slammed down on I-75, killing four people. Damages with this tornado amounted to around $25 million (186 million/2015 dollars).

Much of the Detroit Metro Area observed strong to severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall as the intense low pressure system and strong cold front surged through Lower Michigan that night. Both Detroit City and Metropolitan Airports received about 1.5 inches of rain, whereas Flint measured just a quarter of an inch (.25). As the system moved into Canada, it put an end to the severe weather (well, almost). Very strong isobaric winds encompassed the region behind the storm center on Monday morning, the 12th, with Detroit City Airport (which at that time, housed the wind gust equipment) clocking a west northwest wind gust at 55 mph!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

 

Meteorological Elements Noted in Last Blog Coming together To Exacerbate Winter Elements

It always amazes me when discoveries in meteorological science is written and discussed only to be tried numerous times to see how the results pan-out.

 

Earlier I brought up several hemispheric evolutions unfolding for February 2025 that have research backed studies. Some are more theory driven while being new aspects of the meteorology are discovered as we advance in the field.

 

Stratospheric warming/moderation  - Re-establishment of Polar Vortex

MJO Evolution into Optimate Phases

 

The GEFS MJO projection moves into and thru Phase 7, Phase 8 into Phase 1 by 2/24/25.  The EURO MJO extends out further and also moves along and thru Phase 7, 8 and into Phase 1 by the 24th. Then; from there it advances thru Phase 1, 2 and enters Phase 3 while weakening the effects by 3/1/25.

Upper Wind/Jet Stream

300 MB JET - Until Mon 2/24/25

 

Initially as of 2/15/25; the Polar Vortex drops into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this upcoming week (2/17/25 - 2/22/25) briefly relaxing to a more zonal flow only to recharge into another trough the second week. Of course, this will update as later data is fed into the model but this is the way GFS model is projecting the jet stream. 

 

There is a decent chance the upcoming week will be the "bowels of the winter cold" with the fresh snow cover and Arctic cold sliding in and temperatures at 7am each morning may not be actual lows. Just the models idea of the cold mornings expected this week before moderating on the weekend. Another storm to watch will be the one moving through the Gulf states/Ohio Valley again mid week. Thus far; models keep that impulse for development further south and to the East Coast.

 

 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Second Half of Winter ~ Same as the First?

The actual temperature trend of the winter has unfolded as suggested by preferred Winter Analogues (see table below and clips from original outlook). Basically after the warm fall  (especially November), research suggested a change in the trend would commence in December. A sharper contrast in the warm pattern was projected with a pattern change to more seasonal weather. Colder temperatures more typical for early winter were in the offing as December unfolded.

 

In my opening Winter 2024-25 Outlook headline; I questioned "Another milder winter in store, is this becoming a habit - or is it?" mainly because last winter (2023-24) was like a perpetual fall in Michigan or basically, like a "Kentuckian Winter".  In addition; many of our previous winters have been predominately mild with just a few weeks to month of real cold winter weather. Original Winter 2024-25 Outlook.

 

Best thing to do is to compare what has transpired the past few months, compare it to analogues and trends, also look at hemispheric patterns from previous similar analogue winters and patterns locally. We've got at least 3 analogues that fit the bill, but which one(s) if any, will pan out into April?

 

First, lets check the temperature/precipitation pattern for the first half of the cold season...  

Dec Temp/Pcpn: Both temperatures and precipitation showed the beginning of the winter milder and wetter with 3.27" recorded. However; colder spells came more frequently with the monthly average coming in mainly below normal until just after Christmas when a burst of warmer weather boosted the average 2.0 degrees above.

Jan Temp/Pcpn: a complete reversal in both temperature and precipitation came to fruition with both below normal. With an average temperature of 23.0, the average departure came in just shy of 3.0 degrees /-2.8/ below normal.

 

Colder snaps did indeed start in December but they were offset enough with warmer spells mainly late in the month. While November's average temperature was nearly +7.0 degrees above normal; December's dropped to just +2.0 degrees above normal with January's average falling -3.0 degrees below normal - quite a dramatic turn-around (a departure turn-around of 10 degrees). The colder trend is easily seen and verified.

 

Interestingly, this did reflect all of the analogues overall trend change from the warmer fall into the colder first part of Winter. When just looking at each individual month below or above temperatures, averages were projected to fall closer to below. The analogues strongly suggested the trend of colder weather coming in the first half of the winter starting sometime in December. Later, as the winter to spring evolved, it became more mixed again with averages actually reverted back to above normal mainly because of a few recent warmer winters.

 

Snowfall thus far this winter has been low and nearly half below the normal snowfall through the end of January.

 

 SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
                                                              NORM      DEP
  MONTH TO DATE JAN   8.9           14.0        -5.1       
  SINCE DEC 1                 12.5           22.9      -10.4      

  SEASON                         14.3           24.8      -10.5              
 

First, lets look at the projected snow averages for the winter -which actually have averaged lighter than normal - when all (and preferred analogue winters) are  considered. By the end of January 2025 thus far, only 14.1" at DTW has fallen which is just under 10" below average by the end of January (see official stats from DTW). On average about 2 feet of snow can be expected by this time.                             

Winter 2024-25 Analogue Snowfalls
DETROIT	SEA TOT	SEASON
SEASON	44.4	1
1942-43	16.6	1
1952-53	49.2	2
1964-65	50.6	1
1966-67	35.4	2
1970-71	51.8	2
1983-84	27.6	3
1995-96	36.3	4
2005-06	37.9	5
	Ave 38.2
	Norm 45.0
	Dep - 6.8

Checking out the preferred Winter Analogues below snowfall amounts below; obviously one would ask, why is 1942-43 since we didn't have anywhere near 18.4" of snow in January? Obviously, snowstorms (when they do come) don't usually come all neatly packed in a particular month. What we are looking for here is the previous analogue trends before mid-end of the winter. Thus, that 18.4" of snow could come during the second half of the snow season (Feb-Mar) and would still suffice for a trend seen for a snowier middle to end of the season.

Basically; heaviest snowfalls in two of the analogue seasons (1942-43 and 1964-65) came middle to end of the season. In the case of the Winter of 1970-71, the seasonal snowfall was lighter than normal and was distributed throughout the season.

So according to the preferred analogues that have verified in trend; the normal to below snowfall seen in all the winters (38.2"/-6.2) still holds sway. Temperatures become more variable later winter into spring relative to normal. Some analogues remained cold while others moderate and actually warm to above normal. The over preferred analogues thus far through February /Dec-Feb/ keep temperatures ending normal to below for the winter.

A	DETROIT	T	E	M	P	S		P
N	SEASON	DEC	JAN	FEB	WNT AVE	WINTER	NAO/SC	SEASON
A	1942-43-n **	25.6	21.7	28.0	25.1	1	N/SC--	1942-43
O	1964-65-a **	30.4	25.5	26.6	27.5	1	N-/SC	1964-65
U	1970-71-n **	29.0	20.7	27.4	25.7	2	N-/SC++	1970-71
	DETROIT	S	N	O	W	F	A	L	L
W	SEASON	OCT	NOV	DEC	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	SEA TOT
E	1942-43	T	4.4	9.2	18.4	2.7	2.9	6.8	44.4
K	1964-65	T	2.6	8.4	7.1	15.8	12.9	2.4	49.2
L	1970-71	0.0	1.7	9.8	8.7	5.9	8.7	0.6	35.4

Model Outlook into February: another moderation to warming of the stratosphere has been projected and continues with an actual split and lowering of the polar vortex(s) further south over the mid latitudes in some areas (the States and Europe). This occurs occasionally and can produce unseasonably cold, arctic/polar air to drain into the mid-latitudes - the exact areas and intensity in the surface jet stream remains questionable. Sometimes the lower atmospheric engages this delivery; sometimes not so much and models have a difficult time in forecasting this change and where.  This is what is seen thus far through the mid February time-frame. A notable drop in the NAO and AO and the stratospheric moderation or warming which at this point is forecast. This will encourage more of a stormy period and fluctuations of temperatures; so stay tuned.

 

 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian