10/24/12

10/31/12 Update - "Wicked Witch Of The East Sandy" Winds Down With Winds Down

The following are reported wind gusts to the NWS DTX as of Tuesday, October 30th. No other later reports are available as winds have diminished across the region.
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME PEAK WIND GUSTS REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TODAY...AS OF 400 PM...

PORT HOPE                        55 MPH     1129 PM...
YPSILANTI                        49 MPH     825 PM...
DETROIT CITY AIRPORT             49 MPH     918 AM...
PONTIAC                          48 MPH     936 PM...
ADRIAN                           48 MPH     1132 PM...
ANN ARBOR                        46 MPH     247 AM...
DETROIT METRO AIRPORT            46 MPH     1105 PM...
FLINT                            44 MPH     1116 PM...
SAGINAW                          39 MPH     1212 AM...


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Update 10/29/12
Latest model guidance continues to advertise historic storm "Sandy" making landfall at or near the southern New Jersey coast according to the NHC. Pressure was pegged at 943 MB and also from the 11AM EDT discussion:

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.

For the latest on Sandy check out NOAA/NWS Storm Central.

For our neck of the woods; I updated wind forecast slightly (mainly near Lake Huron)...upped 45 - 50 mph to 45- 55 mph and gusts near 60 per NWS High Wind Warning downwind of Lake Huron.

Generally, a stiff north wind at 15 to 25 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph will increase further to 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 45 - 55 mph over Southeast Lower Michigan later today into Tuesday. Strongest winds will be down wind of Lake Huron where possible 60 MPH may occur at the height of the storm. Most areas away from Lake Huron will see winds increase further to 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 45 - 50 mph over Southeast Lower Michigan later today into Tuesday per original forecast. In addition, latest indications and recent air samplings indicate enough cold air will be drawn and remain in the system to bring mixed precipitation (rain/sleet and snow) at times.

From the NWS DTX; go to Web Briefing on the storm

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10/28/2012
As of 8 PM EDT; Hurricane Sandy continues to deepen /an extraordinary 950 MB or 28.05"/ this Sunday evening off the coast of North Carolina as it moves northeast around 15 mph. She is expected to move more north and then northwest toward the coast; coming inland actually around New York City sometime late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds as of Sunday evening remain at a minimal hurricane strength at around 75 mph.


The expected track I discussed several days ago continues to look good as she heads inland on Tuesday into Pennsylvania and then as far west as west/north-central New York state (see hurricane track above courtesy from the Hurricane Center). As mentioned in my last post; the model projection of the strong polar jet core aloft phasing into Sandy is already unfolding in the real time upper wind data. Sandy is expected to become extra-tropical before she moves inland and this extra-tropcial version will continue the brisk to strong winds and push precipitation to the west as she retrogrades as far west as the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday. Even though Sandy is (and will remain) well east of Southeast Lower Michigan; it's biggest influence by way of buffeting gusty north winds will continue to rake the region right into Halloween (albeit; dying down somewhat by then). Generally, a stiff north wind at 15 to 25 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph will increase further to 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 45 - 50 mph over Southeast Lower Michigan later Monday into Tuesday. Strongest winds will be down wind of Lake Huron.

Look for wind blown light rain to gradually spread west (with a north to south trajectory movement) over Southeast Lower Michigan by early Monday and continuing Monday night into Tuesday. There will still be the chance of more showery precipitation on Halloween. Chances of any frozen precipitation look slim as the air mass is becoming fairly homogeneous with temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere conducive for mainly rain. Even so; temperatures will be no picnic with readings oscillating from the mid to upper 30s at night to the lower to mid 40s during the daytime right into Halloween. The rain and very cool temperatures will make for several days of raw, cool weather for October's swan song.

Humongous storm as it is projected to look on Monday evening /18z Sun GFS run/ approaching New York City Monday evening; 8PM EDT 10/29/2012



 Then as she heads slowly west and unwinds a bit by Tuesday evening; 8PM EDT 10/30/2012




Finally on Halloween night as the "Wicked Witch from the East" (remnants of "Sandy") makes for one breezy and cool trick or treat evening; 8 PM EDT 10/31/2012



Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

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Previous post; 10/24/2012
Our extended meteorological models have been intimating some brew-haul of a storm developing over the Northeast quadrant of the U.S. between Tuesday and Thursday. Some earlier runs had the storm as early as Sunday or Monday but now general consensus in toward the Halloween holiday period. What makes this "model induced storm" so interesting is that is brings the remnants of tropical system "Sandy" far enough north and northwest while merging it with a strong polar jet streak. This polar jet streak will be responsible for bringing our Indiana Summer weather to an end on Saturday as it pushes a strong cold front through the region.

As all of this is still out in "la la land", changes will undoubtedly occur but at this time the models our hinting that the negative tilting trough that matures over the Lakes; will be powerful enough to grab "Sandy" and pivot it back far enough to the northwest to brush Southeast Lower Michigan by Halloween day with mixed precipitation. In any event; a huge storm blossoms over the Northeast with the GFS model projecting a 972 MB low over New York state by Halloween night. Again, this is way ahead and the way this thing has been dancing around in predictions; stay tuned for further updates and undoubtedly, some changes. At this time; it looks as though, much of the storm will be to our east.





Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

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