11/22/12

11/25/2012 Update - First Measurable Snow Of The Season Possible Tuesday After Flirting With Record Territory For Warm Thanksgivings!

11/25/2012-Quick Update on snow potential Tuesday;

Snow lovers; I'm sorry to say the system that had the potential to bring us snow will stay well south and east of Southeast Michigan. The main reason is energy from the northern stream is now unanimously projected to be flatter and weaker with the better sampling of the atmosphere over the Pacific and northern Canada the past couple days. What phasing of the jet streams that does occur will be weaker and occur further south and east of our region. In fact; all projections the next week or so are rather benign and somewhat boring with no notable storms expected to affect the region.
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Original 11/22/2012

On this beautiful, sun filled warm Thanksgiving Day...the last thing "some" people want to hear about is snow. ;-)  As temperatures make a run into the lower to possibly mid 60s; keep in mind the record high for the 22nd at Detroit is 69 way back in 1913! However...if you just look at all previous Thanksgiving Days (and granted the date moves around because of the nature of the Turkey beast); the record high for Detroit for all Thanksgivings is 65 set back on 11/26/1986. At Flint the record warmest Thanksgiving is 61 on 11/30/1933; while in Saginaw, the warmest Thanksgiving was back on 11/26/1908 and again on the same date; 11/26 but in 1914 when both Thanksgivings the mercury rose to 64. There is the chance that one or all will challenge their respective warmest Turkey Day temperature this afternoon; particularly Flint. Again; this would NOT be the record for the date (Detroit-69, Flint-65, Saginaw 66); though Flint and Saginaw may come close to those records too. For other fun filled facts for Thanksgiving Days; visit the NWS in White Lake.

Ok back to next week;
As mentioned at the end of my Winter Outlook; something may be brewing for the last week of November. Well that depends on what extended model you believe. Our GFS model has been intimating that a low pressure system will form over the Midwest Monday night and track northeast through the northern Ohio Valley Tuesday. This puts Southeast Lower Michigan on the north side of the system in the colder air and the likelihood for out first general snow. Albeit; scatted locations may have seen a couple tenths due to snow showers this cold season, most have not. Since the models have been all over the board with the system's track and depth; I'm leery of calling for any "certainty" on this system at this time. Besides that; it's still relatively early in the season and with temperatures in the 30s, even under the best scenario (for snow) with this system; an inch or two on grassy surfaces would suffice. I say "best" because there is the risk she'll miss us all together and track far enough south and we get nothing or just a little melting snow or rain/snow. Here's the latest projection for the system from the GFS that far out:



In any event; I'll update on the "possible" system as the time approaches. Have a fun and safe Thanksgiving on this beautiful warm day!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

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