10/5/12

10/8 Update; A Cold and Frosty Columbus Day Greets Inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan

Widespread frosts and areas of freezing temperatures engulfed Southeast Lower Michigan this Columbus morning under brilliant sunshine. Before that sunshine, temperatures dropped well down into the 20s and 30s at most locations. As would be expected; sheltered areas along with lake influenced areas escaped the worst of the cold. Check out the low temperatures on the NWS regional temperatures/precipitation table. Keep in mind the second table of several; reflects 24 hour low temperatures ending at midnight. Coldest temperatures were found around the Saline area where readings crated to the lower 20s!

000
ASUS63 KDTX 081503
RTPDTX
MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1103 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

VALUES REPRESENT YESTERDAY`S HIGHS....LOW OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM EDT


.BR DTX  1008  ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:.......................................................
:       STATION              MAX / MIN  / 8 AM  / 24-HR
:        NAME                TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  / PRECIP
:.......................................................
WHKM4: NWS WHITE LAKE      :   47 /  29  /  33  /    T
ARBM4: ANN ARBOR           :   46 /  30  /  30  / 0.06
ADG  : ADRIAN AIRPORT      :   48 /  28  /  31  / 0.02
BAX  :*BAD AXE AIRPORT     :   50 /  28  /  31  /
CFS  :*CARO AIRPORT-TUSCOLA:   50 /  26  /  29  /
DET  : DETROIT CITY AIRPORT:   51 /  35  /  36  /    T
DTW  : DETROIT METRO ARPT  :   50 /  33  /  34  /    T
FNT  : FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT:   51 /  29  /  34  / 0.01
ONZ  :*GROSSE ILE AIRPORT  :   50 /  39  /  41  /
OZW  :*HOWELL AIRPORT      :   47 /  33  /  34  /
DUH  :*LAMBERTVILLE AIRPORT:   49 /  32  /  32  /
D95  :*LAPEER DUPONT AIRPRT:   50 /  27  /  28  /
IKW  :*MIDLAND AIRPORT     :   49 /  26  /  30  /
TTF  :*MONROE AIRPORT      :   48 /  30  /  30  /
RNP  :*OWOSSO AIRPORT      :   50 /  33  /  38  /
PTK  : PONTIAC AIRPORT     :   48 /  31  /  31  /    T
P58  : PORT HOPE           :   52 /  34  /  34  / 0.00
PHN  :*PORT HURON AIRPORT  :   50 /  27  /  28  /
MBS  : SAGINAW - TRI-CITIES:   50 /  32  /  33  / 0.05
HYX  :*SAGINAW-HARRY BROWNE:   50 /  32  /  34  /
VLL  :*OAKLAND/TROY AIRPORT:   50 /  34  /  35  /
YIP  : YPSILANTI WILLOW RUN:   50 /  32  /  36  /    T
.END


*THE TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THESE SITES ABOVE REPRESENT THE HIGHEST AND
 LOWEST TEMPERATURES THAT WERE REPORTED ON THE METAR OBSERVATIONS
 THAT TRANSMIT THREE TIMES AN HOUR AND MAY NOT REPRESENT THE ACTUAL
 HIGH OR LOW FOR THAT SITE. THESE SITES DO NOT MEASURE
 PRECIPITATION.
.....................................................................


THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES REPORT FROM MIDNIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT THE PREVIOUS DAY.


.BR DTX  1008  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:.......................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / 12 AM /24-HR
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  /PRECIP
:.......................................................
ARNM4: ADRIAN              :   46 /  38  /  39  / 0.04
MILM4: MILFORD - GM GROUNDS:   45 /  34  /  36  / 0.03
MDLM4: MIDLAND             :   50 /  36  /  38  / 0.00
MTCM4: MT CLEMENS SELFRIDGE:   51 /  39  /  43  /    T
PRHM4: PORT HURON          :   53 /  37  /  42  / 0.00
SGNM4: SAGINAW 5W          :   50 /  35  /  35  / 0.00
.....................................................................


COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS VALUES ARE FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS FROM YESTERDAYS OBSERVATION TIME TO TODAY`S OBSERVATION TIME.


.BR DTX  1008  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:.........................................................
:       STATION            OB   /MAX / MIN  / OB   /24-HR
:        NAME              TIME /TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP /PRECIP
:.........................................................
: ***MIDLAND COUNTY***


: ***BAY COUNTY***
AUBM4:  AUBURN            :0630/   50 /  28  /  32  / 0.00


: ***HURON COUNTY***
BDAM4:  BAD AXE           :0700/   50 /  32  /  32  / 0.00
FLNM4:  FILION 5NNW       :0620/   51 /  32  /  32  / 0.00
POAM4:  PORT AUSTIN       :0740/   50 /  32  /  33  / 0.05
PHPM4:  PORT HOPE         :0800/   51 /  31  /  33  / 0.00


: ***SAGINAW COUNTY***
SAGM4:  SAGINAW           :0800/   51 /  31  /  32  / 0.00


: ***TUSCOLA COUNTY***
CARM4:  CARO              :0800/   51 /  31  /  32  / 0.00
VSSM4:  VASSAR            :0700/   51 /  26  /  27  / 0.00


: ***SANILAC COUNTY***
LEXM4:  LEXINGTON         :0730/   51 /  32  /  33  / 0.00
SANM4:  SANDUSKY          :0700/   50 /  33  /  33  / 0.00


: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY***
CORM4:  CORUNNA 2NE       :0600/   50 /  32  /  32  / 0.00
DRNM4:  DURAND            :0800/   50 /  32  /  36  /    T
OWSM4:  OWOSSO            :0700/   51 /  31  /  33  /    T


: ***GENESEE COUNTY***
BUNM4:  BURTON 4N         :0700/   52 /  27  /  28  /    T
FLTM4:  FLINT  7W         :0800/   49 /  30  /  34  /    T
LIDM4:  LINDEN            :1030/   47 /  31  /  41  / 0.00
GODM4:  GOODRICH          :0730/   51 /  30  /  31  / 0.03


: ***LAPEER COUNTY***
LPEM4:  LAPEER 2W         :0900/   51 /  28  /  33  / 0.00
LPRM4:  LAPEER            :0730/   50 /  30  /  30  / 0.00


: ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY***
AGCM4:  ALGONAC           :0835/   55 /  34  /  43  / 0.00
YALM4:  YALE              :0700/   52 /  31  /  32  / 0.00


: ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY***
HELM4:  HELL              :0930/   44 /  29  /  39  / 0.06
HOWM4:  HOWELL            :0800/   48 /  26  /  27  / 0.01
WHLM4:WHITMORE LK 1N      :0700/   45 /  29  /  29  / 0.00


: ***OAKLAND COUNTY***
FARM4:  FARMINGTON        :0730/   48 /  28  /  28  / 0.00
PONM4:  PONTIAC           :0811/   49 /  33  /  34  / 0.01
WSBM4:  WEST BLOOMFIELD   :0730/      /       /     / 0.05


: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  RICHMOND 4NNW     :0800/   55 /  27  /  30  / 0.00


: ***WASHTENAW COUNTY***
AASM4: ANN ARBOR-SOUTHEAST:0730/   48 /  28  /  28  / 0.03
AAWM4:  ANN ARBOR 1W      :0830/   47 /  29  /  33  / 0.02
MCHM4:  MANCHESTER        :0641/   45 /  28  /  28  / 0.02
SLNM4:  SALINE 4SW        :0800/   48 /  21  /  26  / 0.00
SALM4:  SALINE            :0800/   42 /  22  /  25  / 0.00


: ***WAYNE COUNTY***
DBNM4:  DEARBORN          :0900/   53 /  34  /  37  /    T
WYTM4:  WYANDOTTE         :0800/      /       /     / 0.01


: ***LENAWEE COUNTY***
BLIM4:  BLISSFIELD 1SW    :0707/   48 /  29  /  29  /    T
MRIM4:  MORENCI           :0730/   51 /  28  /  28  / 0.00
TECM4:  TECUMSEH          :0630/   47 /  30  /  32  / 0.05
TIPM4:  TIPTON 2WNW       :0800/   48 /  27  /  29  / 0.08


: ***MONROE COUNTY***
DNDM4:  DUNDEE            :0645/   47 /  32  /  32  / 0.03
MLIM4:  MILAN             :0757/   45 /  31  /  31  / 0.06
MNRM4:  MONROE            :0730/   49 /  31  /  31  /    T
NWPM4:  NEWPORT 4SSE      :0700/   50 /  35  /  37  / 0.00
.END


* ALL DATA ABOVE IS PRELIMINARY AND HAS NOT UNDERGONE FINAL QUALITY
CONTROL BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER /NCDC/.  THEREFORE...
THIS DATA IS SUBJECT TO REVISION.  FINAL AND CERTIFIED CLIMATE DATA
CAN BE ACCESSED AT WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV.
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10/6-8 Update
Little change from previous thinking as coldest overnights will be Saturday night into Sunday and then, Sunday night into Monday. While this air mass is certainly old enough for frost/freezing conditions; patchy clouds and steady wind off of the warmer Great Lakes can work against it. With partial to mostly clear skies and lighter winds; low temperatures have to potential to drop as low as the mid 20s to mid 30s. Areas away from the city of Detroit and Great Lake/ shores are at greatest risk for both frost and freezing conditions.

All persons with vulnerable plants outside may want to bring them indoors, shelter or at the least; water them to give them some protection from the cold. Autumn color enthusiast should note this weekend's cold, breezy air mass will hasten leaf change and encourage leaf drop. The fall color show across Southeast Lower Michigan should peak within the next week to ten days.

This will not be the last in the series of cold plunges in the upcoming week as a "sister" cold air mass is waiting in the wings to surge out of Canada by mid-week. Early indications are this air mass will be as cold, if not colder than the one this weekend and will contribute in closing down this season's growing season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10/3 Update
The impressive cold air and dynamics with this early October blast is on track to flood into Southeast Lower Michigan beginning this Friday with the coldest of air engulfing the region, generally over the weekend. The risk of frost and freeze still appears great; especially if skies clear and winds lighten up some. Under these frost/freeze inducing conditions; the coldest morning when temperatures could fall as low as the mid 20s to mid 30s appears to be Sunday or Monday morning but I will update as we move into the weekend.

The upper air and surface projections of this blast are very impressive for early October. Note the -35C
temperature /500 MB;18kft/ in that western cold core swinging into the Dakotas Friday morning! Of course, the 540 MB low parked aloft over the shores of Lake Superior is nothing to sneeze at either! 


Then by Sunday morning; The whole eastern half of the country is engulfed in the cold on this 500 MB/18kft
map. What really struck me was the projected fairly large cold core of  -35C to -40C temperatures west of James Bay Canada. This is the first week of October, people!


Meanwhile; at the surface where it really matters to us gardeners and nurseries, etc etc....
Note the widespread cold air already over southern Canada extending across much of the North-Central and upper Midwest region of the U.S. with much of this region is in the 20s/30s.





Now, the impressive cold air and upper air dynamics with this sharp October blast has been duplicated (and then some) in the recent past; especially the past decade.

From my Autumn summary of 2009 (and sounds eerily similar to expectations with this October's blast)...

With the change in month, came the abrupt temporary change in autumn’s overall pattern. A strong amplified upper air pattern brought pre‐season Polar cold resulting in temperatures hovering in record cold territory during the first half of the October. Most areas saw a killing frost/freeze by the second weekend of October (roughly a week ahead of schedule, depending on location) but interestingly (especially considering the strength of the cold) none of the three official climate sights reported snow in October.

Another sharp cold blast that hit October of 2006  was by far, the worst October cold snap of recent memory also containing early record snows; From my October 2006 write-up 

The most dismal weather seemed to come at the peak autumn color show across the region. No doubt the worst of weather in October (and likely the fall) came mid-month on the 12th with a record breaking cold blast of Arctic air. The storm had an uncanny resemblance to very old record setting storm itself, back on October 13th, 1909. Both systems contained impressively deep centers / around 29.00”/ and air straight out of cold core depths of the Arctic. They also took similar tracks and blasted same region with heavy snow, lake effect snow and again, exceptional cold for October. Blustery heavy snow showers bombarded the land with visibilities, at times, dropping to white out conditions.

Then in OCTOBER 2004 

NEAR RECORD COLD FIRST WEEK OFFSET BY INDIAN SUMMER WEATHER THE LAST WEEK

October had been a cool month, especially in the beginning when temperatures fell into the mid 30s with several mornings during the first week having some frosty conditions. A low of 35 degrees on 5th at Detroit Metro - and 25 degrees here at White Lake - was accompanied by a killing frost and hard freeze in Detroit's north/west suburbs. Later on the 17th/18th, another plunge of polar air brought temperature back down into the 30s and for the most part, ended the growing season for 2004 across the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan. Big changes in the upper wind flow to a predominant southwest flow took place during the last third of the month and brought much warmer weather to the region. Temperatures pushed well up into the 60s throughout the last week of the month and peaked at 75 degrees on the 30th (second highest tem

October 2003
October opened in the depths of some of the unseasonably cold air that arrived late in September. A strong polar high pressure pushed the cold air south into the area from Northern Canada. So cold was it on the 1st, that several locations noted snow flakes mixed in with rain showers. While that was the case here at the NWS in White Lake, it was not officially at Detroit Metro Airport. If snow had been observed there, it would have tied the earliest date for snowfall officially observed at Detroit /Oct 1st 1974/. The chill hung around for the nearly the entire first week of the month. High temperatures held down in the 50s, while lows fell into the upper 20s to upper 30s. 

 OCTOBER OF 2002 
WILL BE REMEMBERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR ITS NOTABLE CONTRASTING TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THE MONTH ARRIVED LIKE SEPTEMBER ENDED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PRODUCING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH. A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DETROIT METRO AIRPORT OF 86 ON THE 1ST CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE RECORD /88/. THAT HIGH OF 86 CHALLENGED BUT WAS UNABLE TO BREAK THE RECORD HIGH THAT CONTINUES TO STAND FOR OVER A CENTURY...SET WAY BACK IN 1897. THE LOW OF 66 AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 76 WERE...HOWEVER...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER SEEN ON OCTOBER 1ST. ANOTHER HIGH IN THE 80S /81/ CAME ON THE 4TH AND WAS A GOOD 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WAS ENDED ON THE 4TH BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CHURNED-UP A SQUALL-LINE OF SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH

 BIG CHANGE CAME MID MONTH AS THE UPPER WIND PATTERN SHIFTED FROM A DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE COLDER SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER CAUSED THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TO DROP OVER TEN DEGREES TO 50 DEGREES BY MONTH'S END! THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL COOLING DEGREE DEPARTURE FOR THE MONTH...DESPITE THE BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE...FURTHER UNDERLINES THE CONTRASTING TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF THE MONTH. IN SPITE OF THE COLDER SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER...NO RECORD LOWS WERE SET. FROST AND FREEZES DID...HOWEVER...PRETTY MUCH ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID MONTH. THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURE /30 DEGREES/ AT DETROIT METRO AIRPORT WAS RECORDED ON THE 14TH. 

However, on the Flip-side;

We've also seen some impressive warmth lately in October as evidenced by the 70s/80s last year in the first half of October 2011. A record high of 90! on yours truly's birthday; October 8th 2007 at Detroit Record highs also occurred at both Flint and Saginaw for a couple of days at that time. Here is more on that warm stretch that actually held for the first six weeks of fall 2007!

October 2007 was near the top with the 6th warmest on record at Detroit with a record base of 137 Octobers /1871/, impressive! Over at Flint with a +8.1 departure, October 2007 became the 4th warmest on record since 1942, while at Saginaw with a +7.3 departure, placed October in 6th warmest since 1899.  The best stretch of warm weather came from the 7th through the 11th when temperatures surged into the 70s and 80s, and then again from the 23rd into the 27th, when readings rose into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Temperature averaged around 10 to 15 degrees above normal during these warm spells. 

October of 2005 also saw record warmth during the first week of the month with record highs in the upper 80s at both Detroit and Saginaw.

Yes, October around here is by nature, a changeable, feast or famine month especially when it comes to temperatures. But; just a little more so in the past decade...hmmmm.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


_____________________________________________________________________________
Previous blog on October Frost/Freeze potential

9/30/2012
Just a brief heads up for the first weekend of October:

Latest indications are a stronger cold blast is slated to push southeast out of Canada late this week into the weekend; which is similar timing to the last one. Very early indications are this one may very well have more punch with it as far as cold enough temperatures to bring a more substantial frost and freeze to all of Southeast Lower Michigan.

We are coming up to the time when Southeast Lower Michigan on average, experiences a killing frost/freeze; generally the second to third week of October. Therefore, if this pans out; we will be a little ahead of schedule. Stay Tuned....

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